Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS BEING FED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH SO FAR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE PROVED TO BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES SO FAR WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS
THE FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE
REGION. LARGELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
TRAINING OF CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD
SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY.

UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME FLAT AND ZONAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SH/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  43  72  50 / 100   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              46  69  41  72  52 /  60   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69  46 / 100  20   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            45  66  40  72  49 / 100   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73  48 / 100  20   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            49  67  44  73  52 / 100   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           48  65  40  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  67  41  73  49 /  70   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72  48 /  40   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
CAMERON...CORSICANA.....SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

58/82

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 E GATESVILLE          31.44N  97.58W
03/18/2008                   CORYELL            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER SECONDARY ROADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKWALL                32.92N  96.46W
03/18/2008                   ROCKWALL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM 548 S OF I-30 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. OTHER
            ROADS ALONG I-30 ARE UNDER WATER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     15 NE SULPHUR SPRINGS   33.30N  95.43W
03/18/2008                   HOPKINS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM-3236: 18-WHEELER ON SIDE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 NNE PLANO            33.18N  96.68W
03/18/2008                   COLLIN             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER OVER FM 546
            NEAR BRANCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N SULPHUR SPRINGS    33.29N  95.61W
03/18/2008                   HOPKINS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CR 4508: MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE TO 4 HOMES AND NUMEROUS
            TREES DOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARIS                   33.67N  95.55W
03/18/2008                   LAMAR              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A HIGH WATER RESCUE WAS IN PROGRESS ON TIGERTOWN ROAD
            ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF LOOP 286. FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED
            AT FM 79 AND FM 2820.