Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS BEING FED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH SO FAR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE PROVED TO BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES SO FAR WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS
THE FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE
REGION. LARGELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
TRAINING OF CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD
SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY.

UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME FLAT AND ZONAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SH/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  43  72  50 / 100   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              46  69  41  72  52 /  60   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69  46 / 100  20   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            45  66  40  72  49 / 100   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73  48 / 100  20   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            49  67  44  73  52 / 100   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           48  65  40  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  67  41  73  49 /  70   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72  48 /  40   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
CAMERON...CORSICANA.....SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

58/82

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ146-181915-
NAVARRO TX-
144 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
CORSICANA TO 7 MILES EAST OF CORSICANA...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BARRY AND CORSICANA.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3203 9673 3225 9658 3233 9639 3228 9628
      3227 9629 3225 9627 3225 9625 3222 9620
      3222 9618 3202 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 192DEG 42KT 3212 9660 3211 9634

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ144-157-159-181915-
BOSQUE TX-MCLENNAN TX-CORYELL TX-
146 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BOSQUE COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY
  WESTERN MCLENNAN COUNTY

AT 146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCGREGOR...MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CRAWFORD...VALLEY MILLS AND
MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3134 9766 3184 9747 3179 9731 3178 9733
      3175 9728 3177 9724 3177 9722 3131 9744
      3129 9750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 200DEG 39KT 3140 9752

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ095-181915-
LAMAR TX-
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PARIS.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3349 9560 3348 9570 3349 9581 3389 9574
      3387 9545 3347 9556 3347 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 188DEG 50KT 3353 9568

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
211 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 32.52N  96.81W
03/18/2008                   ELLIS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME PARK BEING EVACUATED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
216 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ101-116-181945-
JACK TX-PALO PINTO TX-
216 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY
  EASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
NORTH AT 55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAFORD AND MINERAL WELLS.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3323 9821 3316 9792 3306 9791 3300 9795
      3299 9806 3280 9806 3255 9820 3260 9840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 198DEG 49KT 3267 9827

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKWALL                32.92N  96.46W
03/18/2008                   ROCKWALL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTH AND SOUTHBOUND I-30 SERVICE ROADS CLOSED NEAR MILE
            MARKER 79 DUE TO FLOODING.