Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WHERE THE FRONT HAS
GONE THROUGH. THE FRONT IS NOW NEAR A LINE FROM NEAR TALCO TO
CORSICANA TO BURNET. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 131 FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MEAN ALL OF NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN TO WAXAHACHIE TO LAMPASAS IS NOW UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.
THIS IS CONSIDERED A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. TORNADO PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE
EHI AND VGP ARE EXTREMELY HIGH AS WELL. SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM.  SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA WITH MOVEMENT
TO THE NNE AROUND 35 MPH. SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THESE SHOULD FILL IN AS MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TO THE SSE. THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THIS AIR
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND IS LARGELY UNTAPPED. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMP AND DP TRENDS. SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...SCATTERED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2-3SM.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM FORT WORTH TO NEAR GOLDTHWAITE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE ALSO BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE THE
TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST AS THEY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS MAY
AT TIMES BRIEFLY LOWER INTO IFR OR RAISE INTO VFR.

82/JLD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ALONG AND BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED AND IS RESULTING
IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN AREA TO SHIFT EAST WITH
TIME. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS LOCATED. THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD FINALLY END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY IN MANY AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. THE ECM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FORECASTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TODAY SINCE TEMPERATURES
AT SUNRISE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAYTIME HIGH. CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE SUN WILL
MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. EXPECT A SMALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  43  72 / 100   0   0   0
WACO, TX              46  69  41  72 /  60   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69 / 100  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            45  66  40  72 / 100   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73 / 100  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            49  67  44  73 / 100  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           48  65  40  72 /  90  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         47  67  41  73 /  70   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

13/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
CAMERON...CORSICANA.....SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

58/82

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAXAHACHIE              32.41N  96.85W
03/18/2008                   ELLIS              TX   ELLIS COUNTY DISPATCH

            ELLIS COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS SEVERAL COUNTY ROAD
            CLOSURES ON WEST SIDE OF COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DALLAS                  32.79N  96.77W
03/18/2008                   DALLAS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CITY OF DALLAS WEB SYSTEM REPORTS NUMEROUS STREETS
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ146-181915-
NAVARRO TX-
144 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
CORSICANA TO 7 MILES EAST OF CORSICANA...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BARRY AND CORSICANA.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3203 9673 3225 9658 3233 9639 3228 9628
      3227 9629 3225 9627 3225 9625 3222 9620
      3222 9618 3202 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 192DEG 42KT 3212 9660 3211 9634

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ144-157-159-181915-
BOSQUE TX-MCLENNAN TX-CORYELL TX-
146 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BOSQUE COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY
  WESTERN MCLENNAN COUNTY

AT 146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCGREGOR...MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CRAWFORD...VALLEY MILLS AND
MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3134 9766 3184 9747 3179 9731 3178 9733
      3175 9728 3177 9724 3177 9722 3131 9744
      3129 9750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 200DEG 39KT 3140 9752

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ095-181915-
LAMAR TX-
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PARIS.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3349 9560 3348 9570 3349 9581 3389 9574
      3387 9545 3347 9556 3347 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 188DEG 50KT 3353 9568

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
211 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 32.52N  96.81W
03/18/2008                   ELLIS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME PARK BEING EVACUATED