Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 65

February 14, 2003Little River County, Arkansas; 49 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 6:57 PM CST for Little River County, Arkansas; 49 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2003, 6:57 PM CST (00:57 UTC)
Expired
Feb 14, 2003, 9:00 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties

Little River County, AR, Anderson County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Camp County, TX, Collin County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hays County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Morris County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Smith County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Titus County, TX, Travis County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1504 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 109 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1504 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 150057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150057 
TXZ000-150300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 3...

VALID 150057Z - 150300Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WW 003.



LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE/DRYLINE FROM
AROUND SPS SWD TO W OF MWL TO E OF JCT.  AIRMASS TO THE E OF THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG.  ERN EDGE OF BUOYANT WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO BE MARKED BY
N-S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TKI/TRL AREA SWD THROUGH
CRS TO AROUND OCH.



REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS TSTMS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF WW 003.  LACK OF STRONG...SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO LIMITING ACTIVITY THUS FAR AS 00Z FWD
SOUNDING INDICATED A SBCAPE OF 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENT ZONE/DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF NRN MEXICO ENHANCES
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER REGION.  GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PROFILES OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD/DRT SOUNDINGS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/GOSS.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

30039783 30039908 31939792 33849676 33859545 33849414
31939536 30039657

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 7:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLittle River113 min
Feb 14, 11:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more2 hr
Feb 14, 11:20 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more6 hr
Feb 15, 12:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more119 min
Feb 15, 3:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington60 min
Feb 14, 9:12 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more2 hr
Feb 14, 10:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell, Bexar and 40 more119 min
Feb 15, 4:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRefugio3 hr
Feb 15, 4:35 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more4 hr
Feb 15, 6:48 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more87 min
Feb 15, 2:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Goliad, Jim Wells, Karnes and 6 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.