Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 78
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2003, 2:47 PM CST for 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2003, 2:47 PM CST (20:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2003, 4:45 PM CST
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Atascosa County, TX, Bee County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Wilson County, TX
The radar
The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 741 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -55 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 605 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
400 ACUS11 KWNS 152047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152047 TXZ000-152245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152047Z - 152245Z CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY POSE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS HAS BEEN SWEPT OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS IN WAKE OF WESTERN GULF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW-THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MID/ UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT NEAR SAN ANTONIO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER AS IT SHIFTS WITH UPPER FORCING...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEW FEW HOURS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK... PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON... ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI BY 16/00Z. ..KERR.. 02/15/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 29229835 29349744 28959692 28379700 27789752 27479790 27999854 28249911
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 6:57 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 14, 7:37 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more | 113 min |
| Feb 14, 9:12 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 14, 10:16 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell, Bexar and 40 more | 119 min |
| Feb 15, 12:31 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bexar, Brooks, Duval, Frio, Jim Hogg and 7 more | 119 min |
| Feb 15, 4:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Refugio | 3 hr |
| Feb 15, 4:35 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 15, 6:48 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.