Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 74

February 15, 2003Refugio County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2003, 4:12 AM CST for Refugio County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2003, 4:12 AM CST (10:12 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2003, 6:45 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

County Refugio County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 830 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -90 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 685 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

041 
ACUS11 KWNS 151013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151012 
TXZ000-151245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151012Z - 151245Z

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH TX.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED...



LONG LOOP WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST RUC2 MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH REGION OF ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SPEED MAX LIFTING ENEWD
ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TX.  RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE INTO WEBB...JIM HOGG...AND ZAPATA COUNTIES.	THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINTAIN/STRENGTHEN IN INTENSITY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..DARROW.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

27529953 28339848 28359658

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 14, 6:57 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more	2 hr
Feb 14, 7:37 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more	113 min
Feb 14, 9:12 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more	2 hr
Feb 14, 10:16 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell, Bexar and 40 more	119 min
Feb 15, 12:31 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bexar, Brooks, Duval, Frio, Jim Hogg and 7 more	119 min
Feb 15, 4:35 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more	4 hr
Feb 15, 6:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more	87 min
Feb 15, 2:47 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Goliad, Jim Wells, Karnes and 6 more	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.