Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 68

February 14, 200328 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 9:12 PM CST for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2003, 9:12 PM CST (03:12 UTC)
Expired
Feb 14, 2003, 11:15 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bee County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Duval County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Frio County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Medina County, TX, Nueces County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Webb County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 830 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
830 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-90 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
685 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

812 
ACUS11 KWNS 150312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150312 
TXZ000-150515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4...

VALID 150312Z - 150515Z

THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
TSTMS MOVING INTO WRN AND SRN PORTIONS WW 004.



REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON MEXICO INTO WW 004.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO
--PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCALIZED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY.  THE AIRMASS OVER THE WATCH AREA
REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER  DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.



LATEST ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS A RESULT OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL
JET MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE TX COAST.  THIS ASCENT MAY
HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WW WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.



..MEAD/GOSS.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

27389902 27380040 28709985 30039930 30049788 30039646
28709705 27389763

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 6:57 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more2 hr
Feb 14, 7:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more113 min
Feb 14, 10:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell, Bexar and 40 more119 min
Feb 15, 12:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bexar, Brooks, Duval, Frio, Jim Hogg and 7 more119 min
Feb 15, 4:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRefugio3 hr
Feb 15, 4:35 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more4 hr
Feb 15, 6:48 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more87 min
Feb 15, 2:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Goliad, Jim Wells, Karnes and 6 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.