Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 70

February 14, 200346 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 10:16 PM CST for 46 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2003, 10:16 PM CST (04:16 UTC)
Expired
Feb 15, 2003, 12:15 AM CST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bee County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Coryell County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Duval County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hays County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, Llano County, TX, McLennan County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Medina County, TX, Milam County, TX, Nueces County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Travis County, TX, Webb County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 274 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 830 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
830 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-90 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
685 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

229 
ACUS11 KWNS 150417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150416 
TXZ000-150615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 3...4...

VALID 150416Z - 150615Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S
003 AND 004 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER NO REPLACEMENT
WW IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.



CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WW 004 REMAINS UNORGANIZED...EVEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT.  IT APPEARS THAT THE LACK OF SUSTAINED...STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AREAS OF
ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVING ACROSS SRN TX INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY...AND ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE.



SINCE THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...WW/S 003
AND 004 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

..MEAD/GOSS.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

32109784 31839653 29979652 27419762 27370037 30089925

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 6:57 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more2 hr
Feb 14, 7:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more113 min
Feb 14, 9:12 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more2 hr
Feb 15, 12:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bexar, Brooks, Duval, Frio, Jim Hogg and 7 more119 min
Feb 15, 4:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRefugio3 hr
Feb 15, 4:35 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more4 hr
Feb 15, 6:48 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more87 min
Feb 15, 2:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Goliad, Jim Wells, Karnes and 6 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.