Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 AM CST THU NOV 15 2001

FRIGID UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY
SEWD...DRIVING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN ADVANCE THRU SC TX.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION BUT AGREE THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND IN THE ELP AREA THRU SAT...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO OPEN AND LIFT OUT ON SUN.  WITH LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
SUSTAINING MOISTURE...LITTLE WILL CHANGE THRU NEXT 48 HOURS.

FIRST TWO SHORT WAVES HAVE ALREADY CROSSED WARNING AREA. SPOTTY SVR
WX IN FORM OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPED UNDER STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN STORMS MOVING 10-15
KTS.  RAIN TOTALS RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA WITH MAX TOTALS OF NEARLY 8 INCHES IN EXTREME SOUTH PART.
SOILS ARE SATURATED AND SOME OF THE MORE QUICKLY RESPONDING STREAMS
ARE ON THE RISE...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN.
GOOD CHANCE THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

LOWERED POPS ON MON AND TUE AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA AND
REMOVED THE POPS FROM THE WED FORECAST.  EXPECT SOME COOLING WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT AS MINIMUM TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S BY WED
MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.

MIGHT BE WORTH MENTIONING THIS IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS DAY IN
TEXAS...EVEN THOUGH WE MAY BE CONCENTRATING ON SOME NON-WINTER
TYPES OF WEATHER.

.PRELIM NUMBERS
AUS 72/60/70/60 9987
DRT 70/60/68/60 9987
SAT 72/62/72/62 9987

.EWX...FF WATCH ALL SECTIONS THRU 16/00Z.

09/19/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
114 AM CST THU NOV 15 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1155 AM    2 NW CONCAN               TX   1.00 HAIL REPORTED BY
           UVALDE                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0300 PM    UVALDE                    TX   FLASH FLOODS
11/14/01   UVALDE                         HWY 55 AT MONTELL
CREEK                                     CLOSED
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0322 PM    UVALDE                    TX   FLASH FLOODS
11/14/01   UVALDE                         FM 1050 CLOSED
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0854 PM    UTOPIA                    TX   FLASH FLOODS
11/14/01   UVALDE                         HWY 187 CLOSED
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

1144 PM    TARPLEY                   TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
11/14/01   BANDERA                        REPORTED BY COOP
                                          OBSERVERS

DC