EF0 tornado, Pennville, Missouri, June 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SEVERE ONGOING AND HYDRO ISSUES WILL MAKE THIS SHORT.
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR WHAT IS LEFT
OVER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
STILL CAPPED FOR NOW. BUT THAT WILL CHANGE. THE WARM SECTOR IS
JUICED WITH PWS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AVERAGING 70F. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
BUILDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
EVENING OVER THE CWA. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER SOUTHERN KS
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND INCREASES THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. MODELS FAVOR AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. HPC QPF SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH A
TAD HIGH FOR A BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNT. IN ANY EVENT THE TOTAL QPF IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
CWA.

CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF
THE CWA WITH THE ACTIVITY LIKELY EXITING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AND FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES MAY BE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC.

MJ

&&

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE PREVAILING PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE SLOWLY
SPINNING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
THIS THE WEEKEND.

AT THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THAT WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTS
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
THE PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME AS THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH
FORM CANADA WILL BE TO OUR EAST...SPEAKING MORE TO LAYING UP THE
FRONT PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW SLOWING PROGRESS. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE A KEY POINT OF CONTENTION AS THE FRONT THAT PUSHING
SOUTH FRIDAY WILL TAKE WITH SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK POSSIBLE THAT THE RETURNING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY ABOVE THE INTRUDING FRONT COULD ADVECT IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAKE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. TIMING WILL BE AN EVOLVING ISSUE OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS...SO THE START AND STOP OF THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY OR BE DELAYED INTO MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVAILING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERN PLAINS
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THURSDAY
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AS A WEST CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NUDGED NORTH
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD INTO THE MCI/MKC TERMINALS. NO
CAP OVER THE KC METRO SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR TYPE CEILINGS. FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT BY 20Z WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MJ

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ007-
     MOZ008-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
     MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
     MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-
     KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
107 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
107 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTH OF WICHITA TO JUST
NORTH OF KANSAS CITY AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL REMAIN THE
FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS CITY TO NEAR
KIRKSVILLE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...AND
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THAT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

LATER TONIGHT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
TO FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THAT WOULD TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM FORM VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY WITH AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KANSAS
CITY TO MACON LINE HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING 1 TO 2
INCH RAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE QUITE LOW...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST
OF A KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON LINE.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MOZ014-122100-
DAVIESS-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DAVIESS COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN DAVIESS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALLATIN AND
JAMESPORT...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

BOOKBINDER