A surface cyclone approached the Central Coast on February 10, resulting in the first substantial rainfall in over a month for much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. A Wind Advisory was issued for all of Monterey and San Benito Counties as wind gusts up to 50 mph were expected across the region late on the 10th and into the early morning of the 11th.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MTR wrote it up.
A surface cyclone approached the Central Coast on February 10, resulting in the first substantial rainfall in over a month for much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. A Wind Advisory was issued for all of Monterey and San Benito Counties as wind gusts up to 50 mph were expected across the region late on the 10th and into the early morning of the 11th. The orientation of the low favored rainfall for the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges, where rain totals reached 1-3 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, and 2-5 inches in the Santa Lucias.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 2:12 AM PST, 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
212 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
- Widespread rain arrives to the region later today with showers
persisting through Thursday morning.
- Strong south winds this afternoon into Wednesday morning with
gusts of 40-50 mph along the Big Sur coast and higher terrain
in Monterey and San Benito Counties.
- General risk of thunderstorms this afternoon through Wednesday
with chances for lightning, localized gusty winds, small hail,
and locally heavy rain.
- Break in rain chances late Thursday into Friday before a wetter
pattern returns Saturday into the early part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
(Today through Thursday)
Satellite imagery shows mid- to high-level clouds across the region.
Low temperatures this morning will drop into the upper 30s to middle
40s in the inland valleys, with lows in the middle 40s to upper 50s
along the coast and the bays. High temperatures today range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s across the coast and the valleys, and the
upper 40s to middle 50s in the higher elevations. Light winds will
continue for the rest of the overnight period, with the winds
increasing through the morning in advance of an incoming low
pressure system.
As of 1 AM today, a low pressure system was centered around 34N
130W, or around 500 miles to the west-southwest of San Francisco.
This low pressure system is expected to approach the central
California coast through the day, bringing the first substantial
chances for rain in over a month, strong winds, and chances for
thunderstorms. That part is certain. What makes the forecast
challenging is the fact that with the low coming so close to the Bay
Area and Central Coast, where exactly the low tracks later today,
and whatever upper level support the low can generate, can greatly
impact the magnitude of the impacts from the system. To give an
example of the challenges involved, the HRRR model brings the low
rather close to Point Reyes by 4 AM Wedenesday morning, with an
lower level jet supporting strong gusts across the SF Bay Area and
parts of Monterey Bay, while the NAM model brings the low a fair
distance away from Pigeon Point in southern San Mateo County by 4 AM
Wednesday morning, cutting out the upper level support and producing
less intense gusts across the Bay Area. Needless to say, this makes
for a lower confidence forecast than typical for something arriving
within the day or so, and a complex situation not only for the
actual forecast, but in messaging the potential impacts. What
follows is a element-by-element treatment of the impactful weather
across the region, arranged in a roughly decreasing order of
confidence.
As previously mentioned, the low pressure system will bring the
first substantial rainfall to the region in over a month, with the
rainfall starting sometime this afternoon or evening across the
region. The southerly flow associated with the incoming system will
bring in a long, thin plume of moisture that does come in from the
subtropical waters near Hawaii, but is expected to quickly push
through the area and progress down the coast into southern
California. The setup of the low will favor the Santa Cruz and Santa
Lucia ranges, where rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected
through Thursday morning. This setup also tends to enhance the rain
shadow impacts commonly seen in the Livermore, San Jose, and Salinas
Valley regions, and will also occur in the valleys of Sonoma County
courtesy of the orientation of the incoming flow. Those areas could
see around half an inch of rain, give or take a tenth, for the same
time period. For the rest of the Bay Area and the immediate Monterey
Bay region, rain totals will hover around an inch, maybe up to an
inch and a half in the higher elevations. For context to all of
this, Downtown San Francisco reported 2.65 inches of rain in the
first 7 days of 2026, but has since recorded 0.15 inches since
January 8.
The low pressure system is also expected to bring strong winds to
the region, although how impactful those will be is a little
uncertain due to the aforementioned differences in how the models
are treating the track of the low and any upper level support. The
default National Blend of Models is running closer to the lower end
of the model envelope, so I have blended in the HRRR to bump up the
expected wind speeds and gusts across the region. A Wind Advisory
has been issued across Monterey and San Benito counties for 4 PM
today through 4 AM Wednesday morning, due to southerly wind gusts up
to 40-50 mph, with the highest gusts expected along the Big Sur
Coast and the ridgelines across the Santa Lucias and the interior
mountains, but even within the northern Salinas Valley wind gusts up
to 40-45 mph are in the current forecast. The SF Bay Area and Santa
Cruz County are the areas with the most uncertainty as of this time.
The current forecast brings widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph
across the region with stronger gusts up to 40 mph along the coast
and at the ridgelines. This is very much subject to change depending
on the track of the low and the evolution of any upper level support
that accompanies it.
Finally, there is a slight chance of thunderstorm development across
the region this afternoon into Wednesday associated with the low
pressure system. This is possibly the most uncertain part of the
forecast. On one hand, lapse rates are steep across the region, and
K Index values of 30-32 degrees C support the idea of scattered
thunderstorms being possible. On the other hand, widespread cloud
cover will tend to limit solar heating, limiting the chances for
lift, which is one of the ingredients that are necessary for
thunderstorms to form. If thunderstorms do form, lightning,
localized strong gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail are
the main risks.
By Wednesday, the low will weaken and meander somewhere off the Bay
Area coastline, with cold core showers continuing through the day.
Showers linger into Thursday morning, and begin to diminish
around midday into the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
(Thursday night through Monday)
Behind the low pressure system, upper level ridging will develop
late Thursday into Friday, bringing us a drier spell and slightly
warmer temperatures to end the work week. An upper level trough
returns to the West Coast beginning on Saturday, marking the return
of a wetter pattern to the region. As the previous forecaster noted,
weaker surface features will result in less impactful weather and a
greater chance of beneficial light to moderate rainfall across the
region. The upper level trough continues to deepen for the early
part of next week, causing the cool and wet pattern to persist for
the Bay Area and Central Coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
Mainly high clouds overnight through Tuesday morning. SE winds
beging to increase on Tuesday. -Shra possible late morning through
afternoon but steady rain likely hold off until after 00z. Thunder
chances in the region but not specically in the tafs.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with light SE winds through 16z then
increasing through the day Tuesday. A few showers possible Tuesday
afternoon with rain more likely after 00z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Strong southeast winds for Salinas
increasing on Tuesday with gusts around 30kt. SE wind flow likely
to keep -shra to a minimum over the airports through Tuesay
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes prevail across the coastal
waters today. A low pressure system will then approach from the
west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through
Wednesday. Southerly gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday in
the waters south of the Golden Gate depending on the strength and
track of the low. Rain chances return next weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ516>518-528-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST
Wednesday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST
Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST
Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this
afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST
Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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www.youtube.com/nwsbayareaThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind, 2 strong wind, 1 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mining Ridge rain gauge reported 6.10 inches of rain from 2:30 AM on February 10 to 11:10 PM on February 11.
The California Highway Patrol received initial reports of a vehicle going over the cliff off of Highway One into the ocean at 4:20 PM on 2/10/2026. Nearby PGE observation stations reported 40 mph (Coast Road, 404 ft in elevation, north of accident site) and 45 mph (Funt Ranch, 995 ft in elevation, due east and uphill of accident site) gusts at 4:00PM. Sites in the wider vicinity of the accident reported light rain was occurring between 4PM and 5PM. The CHP incident report stated at 4:20PM that it was too windy to see vehicle at the bottom of the cliff. The CHP report mentions a 30 mph gust at 4:52 PM after Coast Guard operations began to reach the vehicle. The Monterey County Sheriff stated that weather conditions made recovery efforts extremely challenging. The victim was recovered around 8:45 PM, one fatality was confirmed as a result of the accident. At the time of the incident, a Wind Advisory was in effect for the Big Sur coast due to the strong wind gusts in the area.
The Old Coast Tower station operated by PG&E measured two gusts of 66 mph.
Flooding was reported along the northbound side of Highway 1 just south of Pardington Lane with rocks in the roadway. Additional rockslides were reported on the highway between Lucia and the Monterey-SLO county line. The cumulative impact of all the rockslides forced the closure of Highway 1 from Pardington Lane to Ragged Point at 11 PM on February 10, reopening at 8:45 AM the next day.
The Las Aquilas station operated by PG&E measured a gust of 53 mph.
The Coast Road station operated by PG&E measured a gust of 63 mph.
The Paicines Road station operated by PG&E measured a gust of 48 mph.
The Los Gatos RAWS reported a wind gust of 66 mph.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Wind, Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast | 2026-02-10 | 28 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1308941, 1307820, 1308931, 1308926, 1308935, 1308933, 1308936, 1308929.