Drought in Texas, February 10 to 28, 2026

Name: Drought in Texas, February 10 to 28, 2026
Start: 2026-02-10T00:00
End: 2026-02-28T23:59
Location: Texas

February 10 to 28, 2026 · NWS BRO · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Lack of rainfall and near-record early-to-mid month heat allowed worsening drought conditions across locations mainly east of Interstate Highway 69C/US 281 across the lower/mid Rio Grande Valley and the Deep South Texas ranchlands in February 2026. Farm and ranch difficulties due to limited forage, water supplies, and heat continued and expanded.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 11:17 PM CST, 43 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 * Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will prevail through early next week. * There is a low chance (20-30%) for rain over the Gulf Waters Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday. * Increased fire weather concerns through early next week; Saturday will be the day at greatest risk for fire weather concerns. * Breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 9, 11:17 PM CST, 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1117 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

* Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will
  prevail through early next week.

* There is a low chance (20-30%) for rain over the Gulf Waters
  Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday.

* Increased fire weather concerns through early next week; Saturday
  will be the day at greatest risk for fire weather concerns.

* Breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine
  conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night
  through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will be the
theme through the forecast period or through early next week. Due to
the combination of antecedently dry soils, freeze cured fuels, windy
conditions, and lowering relative humidity (RH) values, fire weather
concerns will also be on the increase over the weekend, specifically
on Saturday, and possibly again during the early parts of next week
(see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

Global forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a zonal
(westerly) to semi-zonal (southwesterly) flow regime in place along
with a 582-588 mb ridging being the dominant weather fixture over
the southern Plains through early next week. There will be a couple
of weak upper level troughs/perturbations stemming from a parent
trough over/nearby the Beaufort Sea that will track over the
southern Plains this week into next weekend. The first one will
travel from northern Mexico through the state of Texas through
Wednesday (in decaying fashion). A second, stronger impulse is
progged to track over the region Friday through Saturday.

Given that the main storm track, better jet stream dynamics, and
instability will be just to our north-northwest (i.e. over the
Southern Rockies into central/northern Texas), impulses associated
with the aforementioned weak trough in the form of showers and
thunderstorms will pass to our north/northwest effectively keeping
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley rain- free through the
forecast period. That said, there is a low chance (20-30%) for
showers over the Gulf Waters On Wednesday and then again Friday
night into Saturday.

As mentioned earlier, there will be periods of breezy to windy
conditions. The first opportunity will Tuesday. An area of low
pressure just to our west over the Sierra Madre Oriental and high
pressure to our east over the Gulf Waters will enhance a sfc
pressure gradient over the region ultimately resulting in windy
conditions developing on Tuesday. The combination of an enhanced
sfc pressure gradient, increasing mixing heights w/ low level jet
(LLJ) winds between 20-30 kts or so, and locally enhanced
geographical features will result in southerly winds 20-30 mph
developing with gusts up to 40 mph on Tuesday.

Friday and Saturday will feature additional opportunities for
windy conditions. Friday into Saturday, another low pressure
system over the Sierra Madre along with a strengthening LLJ, ahead
of an approaching cold front and mid-upper level trough, will
help to enhance the pressure gradient over the region resulting in
another breezy to windy period. On Friday and Saturday, southerly
winds 15-30 mph are expected to develop with gusts as high as 40
mph. There's still some uncertainty with the precise timing of the
cold fropa on Saturday. A wind shift is possible on Saturday out
of the northwest following the potential cold fropa. Breezy conditions
are also possible on Monday and/or Tuesday of next week. The breezy
to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions
developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday
(see MARINE SECTION for more details).

An emerging negative Pacific North American (-PNA)/positive Arctic
Oscillation (+AO) pattern with troughing (cooler/stormier) over the
western U.S. vs. ridging over the central U.S. is expected to take
shape through early next week. A 582-588 dam ridge overhead coupled
with ample warm air advection (WAA) amid breezy southerly winds will
support unseasonably warm temperatures (late March to late April-
like) through the forecast period. High temperatures will mainly
be in the 80s across Deep South Texas with some lower 90s along
and west of IH-69C through the period. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the 50s and 60s across the region through the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Through 06z Wednesday.....By and large, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR
clouds around from time to time, particularly through tonight.

Southerly winds will be between 5-12 kts through tonight. Windy
conditions develop on Tuesday with southerly winds 15-25 kts gusting
as high as 30 kts or so.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Adverse (SCEC) marine conditions are expected on Tuesday and then
again Friday night through Sunday in response to breezy to windy
conditions. Outside of that, marine conditions will generally be
favorable with low to moderate winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to be on the increase this week
through early next week given the combination of persistent
dryness, lower relative humidity (RH) levels, at times breezy to
windy conditions, and freeze cured grasses/brush.

The latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated long term
dryness over much of Deep South Texas with D3 (Extreme Drought) over
45% of Deep South Texas including most of the Northern Ranchlands
into the Upper Rio Grande Valley, D2 (Severe Drought) conditions
over 19% of Deep South Texas including most of the remainder of the
northern Ranchlands and upper RGV, D1 (Moderate Drought) over 23% of
the region including most of the coast, mid to lower RGV, and
northwestern Zapata County, and D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions over
9% of the region including portions of the mid to lower RGV.

Saturday, following the potential passage of a cold front, looks to
be the day at greatest risk for fire dangers. With RH values
expected to fall to between 15-40% across much of Deep South Texas
on Saturday coupled with breezy 20ft winds 15-25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph ahead and behind the front, a Fire Danger Statement
(RFD) may be needed on Saturday for an Elevated Fire Weather Risk.

Will need to monitor the threat for fire weather through early next
week with additional chances for lower RH values on top of breezy
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             63  81  64  82 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               59  84  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         59  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      64  74  65  74 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     61  79  62  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Northern Hidalgo County

When: February 10, 12:00 AM CST to February 23, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Northern Hidalgo County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.397, -98.181 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought expanded to cover much of northern Hidalgo County, with a remaining area of Severe (D2) in the northeast corner of the area, and another area mainly west of IH-69C west of Linn/San Manuel. The small area west of IH-69C would become D3 on the 17th, while the other D2 area (northeast corner) remained intact.

Drought, Southern Hidalgo County

When: February 10, 12:00 AM CST to February 23, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Southern Hidalgo County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.397, -98.181 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought expanded into southwest Hidalgo County, from near Mission to the Starr line, with a remaining area of Severe (D2) from McAllen/Edinburg and points west to Citrus City (where D3 began, and extended west). D2 conditions also expanded along and south of the Interstate Highway 2 corridor, to the Cameron County line.

Drought, Cameron

When: February 10, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cameron forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.152, -97.453 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought expanded into southern and central/eastern Cameron County on February 10th, extending from La Feria through San Benito and east to just south of Rio Hondo. Conditions would persist in these areas through the 23rd, before D2 expanded further north to reach Harlingen and Rio Hondo.

Drought, Coastal Cameron

When: February 10, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Coastal Cameron forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.152, -97.453 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought expanded into coastal Cameron County from Laguna Atascosa through Bayview and Port Isabel on February 10th, and would continue through the end of February.

Drought, Cameron Island

When: February 10, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cameron Island forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.152, -97.453 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought expanded to the Cameron County barrier island, including Boca Chica Beach, South Padre Island, and the county beaches a few miles north, from February 10th through the end of the month.

Drought, Inland Kenedy County

When: February 10, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Inland Kenedy County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought expanded to cover most of northern inland Kenedy County on the 10th, with Extreme (D3) conditions persisting across the northwest corner, including Sarita, through the end of February. On the 17th, Severe conditions reached all but the southeast corner of inland Kenedy; by the 24th, Extreme (D3) crept eastward to cover an area from just east of Sarita southwest to the Willacy/Hidalgo county line.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, February 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1321025, 1321028, 1321031, 1321032, 1321033, 1321034.