Flash Flood and High Wind in California, February 10 to 11, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
210 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...10/112 PM.

Light to moderate rain will overspread the area tonight and
continue through Wednesday morning. The rain will be accompanied
by gusty southerly winds. Rain will taper off Wednesday but
lingering showers are possible along the Central Coast through
early Thursday. Otherwise, dry weather is expected Thursday
through Saturday with warming temperatures. Rain will return
Sunday, then off and on through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...10/208 PM.

A classic looking cyclone is approaching the Central Coast this
afternoon. There have been a few light showers well ahead of the
storm during the day but as of 1pm the primary cold front is just
30-50 miles west of the Central Coast and poised to move onshore
this evening. No significant changes have been made to previously
discussed rain amounts and hourly rates as the high res models
have more or less held steady. This will be a relatively quick
moving system, but there will be some pockets of heavy rain at
times, especially tonight into early Wednesday. Both the REFS and
HREF models still indicate peak rates at around 0.75"/hr, mostly
in the mountains, with rates at or below a half inch per hour
across coast/valleys. There could be a couple rumbles of thunder
tonight as well (better chance north of Pt Conception) but not
expecting that to be a widespread feature across the area. Overall
rain totals remain very similar to previous estimates, an inch or
less across coast/valleys and 1-2" in the foothills and
mountains.

The storm is also generating gusty south winds ahead of the cold
front to the tune of 30-50 mph, strongest along the Central Coast
and in the mountains. Those will start to drop off overnight into
Wednesday morning.

Rain will turn to showers by around 4am or earlier and then just
scattered showers Wednesday morning until around noon. After that
most of the rain will be over. The one exception will be the
San Luis Obispo Central Coast where there will be enough
lingering moisture and energy to keep light showers going through
at late as Thursday morning.

Aside from that, dry and warmer weather is expected through
Friday which will be the warmest day for quite some time with
highs in the low to mid 70s across the LA/Ventura valleys and 60s
to low 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...10/206 PM.

Most of the ensemble models are showing dry weather through
Saturday before the first of at least three storms arrives on
Sunday. There is still uncertainty on timing of the following
storms but the ensemble solutions have been quite steady with the
rain amounts which looks to be around 2-4" coast/valleys and 3-6"
in the foothills and mountains between Sunday and next Wednesday.
Snow levels mostly will be around 6000 feet, except they could
drop to as low as 4000 or even slightly lower on Wednesday.

That may not be the end of the storm cycle next week as there are
some model solutions keeping the door open for additional precip
later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1916Z.

Around 18Z, the marine layer depth was around 3000 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion up to around 3600 feet with a
temperature around 11 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence through around 00Z, then low confidence due
to rain with low ceilings and visibility. Timing could be off by 2
hours. At least brief IFR or lower cigs/vsbys possible in heavier
rain focused between 00-06Z KSBA and 06-12Z to the south
including KLAX. There is a 5-10 percent chance of a brief
thunderstorm, mostly within those same windows. Weak to moderate
LLWS is possible especially along and before the period of
moderate to heavy rain. Periods of moderate to occasionally
strong turbulence and low-level wind shear are possible after 00Z.

KPMD and KWJF: Peak winds may be off by 5-10 kt due to possible
mountain wave activity.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 00Z followed by low
confidence due to timing of flight category changes and wind
shifts which could be off by 2-3 hours. 5-10 kt east wind
component likely between 00Z-04Z with a south cross wind gusts of
likely at times between 03Z-10Z

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF through 00Z followed by low
confidence due to timing of flight category changes and wind
shifts which could be off by 2-3 hours. Periods of moderate to
occasionally strong turbulence and low-level wind shear are
possible after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...10/147 PM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Less confidence
exists in the swell forecast. Higher confidence exists in the wind
forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) conditions will be imminent (80-100 percent
chance) by this evening. Likely (50-70 percent) chance of Gale
Force southwesterly winds through late tonight, especially for
the waters west through north of Point Conception. Chances for SCA
conditions for winds will decrease some on Wednesday and
Wednesday night SCA conds will likely (50-60 percent) continue
due to a mix of wind and seas. A brief lull in the SCA conditions
should develop for the daylight hours on Thursday then SCA level
winds and higher seas will develop on Thursday evening and likely
persist into the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, SCA level winds are very
likely (60-90 percent) by this evening. Winds will likely fall
below SCA levels between Wednesday and the end of the week, but
there is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA
conditions developing each evening across the western portions.

There is a high chance that marine conditions will be poor for the
upcoming weekend with rain, large seas, and gusty winds spreading
over the area between Friday and Tuesday. There is a moderate to
high (30-50 percent) chance of widespread GALES early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...10/244 AM.

Lower confidence in the current forecast. A high surf advisory has
been expanded across all beaches this due to higher than modeled
west to northwest swells moving across the coastal waters this
morning, then a southwest swell will develop tonight as gusty
southwest winds develop. Southwest and west facing shores will be
particularly vulnerable to developing swell and surf tonight and
into Wednesday, especially the Santa Barbara South Coast, Ventura
County Line, and Leo Carrillo, and Zuma Beach.

Swell and surf will likely drop below high surf advisory criteria
for Thursday, but high surf is likely to develop again from
Friday. It is likely that the swell and surf will remain at or
above high surf criteria through the upcoming weekend.

The latest swell models continue to highlight a period of very
large waves developing for early next week. There is a high to
likely (50-60 percent) chance of widespread high surf between
Monday night and Wednesday. Sets above 10 feet will be possible at
west and northwest shores. There is a 20-40 percent chance of
damaging sets developing between Tuesday and Wednesday, highest
for northwest-facing shores along the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 38-344-345-353-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      340>343-346>349. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RM/Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
123 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     Waterspout       8 WSW Marina del Rey    33.92N 118.59W
02/10/2026                   PZZ655             CA   Lifeguard

            Hermosa Beach lifeguards observed 3
            waterspouts about 10 miles off their coast
            to the west. They lasted for a few minutes
            before dissipating.

&&

RK