Drought in Florida, February 10 to 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
634 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning & Late Night Fog Late Tonight/Tuesday. Localized superfog
  Risk near Wildfires

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Tuesday

- Cold Front Expected Late in the Weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible. Windy conditions possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Little change to the forecast tonight. A weak shortwave aloft is
bring with it some higher clouds and some virga with it, though
a few sprinkles are possible through about 10 PM before both
cloud cover and these slight rain chances move out. There is
some uncertainty tonight with respect to fog potential, though
given the recent drought and limited fog this morning, have kept
patchy potential mainly west of the I-75 corridor as a light
southwest flow develops overnight. Some sea fog is also
possible near coastal GA, though confidence is low for this
potential at this time as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon...Partly to Mostly Sunny skies as some
passing mid and high clouds continue to stream across the region in
the W-NW flow aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure will
continue light and variable winds around 5 mph inland, while a weak
sea breeze around 10 mph develops along the Atlantic Coast. Max
temps still on track to reach near or slightly above normal levels
with highs around 70F across inland SE GA and lower to middle 70s
across inland NE FL, while the Atlantic Coastal areas to the east of
I-95 to the beaches will likely top out in the 60s due to the weak
East Coast sea breeze development.

Tonight...Weak high pressure ridge slides a bit further southward
down the FL Peninsula and introduces a light W-SW flow, but under
mostly clear skies, calm winds and very dry soil conditions expect
low temps to fall below NBM guidance levels with lows around 40F
inland (upper 30s in normally colder locations), while Atlantic
Coastal locations will fall into the middle 40s. Patchy to Areas of
fog formation possible again, mainly over inland areas and along the
I-75 corridor of inland NE FL where some increase low level moisture
will push inland in the developing light W-SW steering flow off the
Gulf. Also, some patchy sea fog possible along the Atlantic Coastal
Areas and I-95 corridor, but overall dew point temps remain lower
than sea surface temps, so not a great set-up for sea fog. The
threat for super fog remains in place near any wildfire locations,
along with some locally dense fog possible inland around sunrise
Tuesday morning, but overall dense fog advisory chances remain low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Initially dry weather conditions on Tuesday will lead to an
increased chance for showers by Wednesday as upper level short waves
along with a more moist westerly flow develop across the forecast
area ahead of an approaching cold air boundary from out of the
north, with the highest likelihood for showers occurring over inland
southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon with probabilities decreasing
further south into northeast Florida. High temperatures through
midweek will be in the mid to upper 70s for inland areas and in the
lower 70s along the coast with overnight low temperatures dropping
down into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers with possible isolated thunderstorms developing Saturday
night and becoming more widespread on Sunday as a trough drags
across the forecast area ahead of an advancing cold front moving in
from out of the west with a potential for strengthening winds
building in from out of the south-southwest ahead of the fropa.
Prior to the weekend, the more moist westerly flow moving across the
region south of the boundary to the north will allow for the
development of light and isolated diurnal showers to form over the
forecast area with the highest likelihood for showers occurring over
southeast Georgia and to a lesser extant into northeast Florida.
Temperatures are anticipated to be near and above the seasonal
average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Main operational concern over the next 12 hours or so will be
fog potential at area airfields. Continued to include vsby conditions
near or just below MVFR at all terminals at this time, though
confidence is low with this potential. However, current thinking
is best chances of FG impacts being at SSI with localized sea
fog and GNV with a light flow developing off the Gulf.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be expected for the remainder of
the forecast period with winds just under 10 kts expected by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build northeast of the region tonight as a weak
coastal trough breaks down over the local waters. A long period
easterly swell will maintain elevated combined seas through Tuesday
as the surface high builds east of the Florida peninsula. The high
will shift southeast of the region Wednesday as a weakening front
approaches with increasing westerly winds and a low chance of
showers. The front is expected to stall and linger over south
Florida Thursday with a brief surge in northeast winds over local
waters. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday
into Saturday. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold
front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds
increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate rip current risk today and Tuesday as
easterly swells with periods of up to 12-14 seconds continue to
produce surf/breakers into the 3-5 ft range at local beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Low Daytime Dispersions Today
- Patchy High Dispersions On Wednesday

Dry weather conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Surface and
transport winds remain weak today as high pressure builds into the
region leading to poor to low daytime dispersions across the area,
especially near the coast. Easterly flow will increase moisture to
coastal areas today but critically low humidities in the low-upper
20s are expected inland, generally near and west of U.S. Highway
301. Moisture gradually increases by Wednesday when min RH values
are in the 40 to 50 percent range. Weak Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes develop this afternoon. Southwesterly winds increase on
Tuesday leading to good and potentially high dispersions. No
significant rain chances expected until mid-late week when a cold
front moves into the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be
possible across inland NE FL and SE GA Tuesday morning, with denser
fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  75  53  73 /   0   0   0  40
SSI  45  70  53  68 /  10   0   0  30
JAX  41  79  50  75 /  10   0   0  20
SGJ  44  75  50  73 /  10   0   0  10
GNV  40  78  48  77 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  39  78  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&