Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in Arizona, March 1 to 2, 2023

Name: Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in Arizona, March 1 to 2, 2023
Start: 2023-03-01T15:00
End: 2023-03-02T11:00
Location: Arizona

March 1 to 2, 2023 · NWS TWC · 10 events in 10 counties and zones

A very strong late season storm system swept through southeast Arizona resulting in strong winds, followed by snow which reached the desert and valley floors of southeast Arizona. Heavy snow of around a foot in depth accumulated in the high country, but even some locations down to 3500 feet received four inches of snow causing travel difficulties.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 2:10 PM MST, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 2:10 PM MST, 50 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds will continue into tonight ahead of another winter
storm that will impact the region tonight through tomorrow
morning. Significant snow in the mountains and rain changing over
to snow with light snow accumulations in the lower elevations are
expected overnight into Thursday morning. Cold mornings, otherwise
dry and warmer this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Impacts from the incoming low pressure system will begin this
afternoon in the form of gusty, southwest winds. Highest winds are
expected later than the typical afternoon early evening time period
and will lead up to the approaching front this evening into tonight.
Many areas of southeast Arizona will see gusts between 40-50 mph
with localized gusts up to 55 mph possible. The higher elevations
will see even stronger winds with gusts up to 60 mph. Wind
Advisory remains in place through tonight. Following the winds
will be a band of precipitation along a cold frontal boundary that
will enter western Pima County and southeast Pinal County around
5 PM, reaching Tucson and Nogales between 8 PM-10 PM, and Sierra
Vista/Douglas after midnight. Snow levels will drop quickly behind
the front down to 2000-2500 feet and the transition from rain to
snow will be swift. That transition for the Tucson Metro, Sierra
Vista, and Nogales should occur between 10 PM and midnight. After
that roughly three hour window of precipitation overnight there
will be a break in precip through around 5 AM when a second round
of precip will push through on the backside of the system bringing
a second chance at additional snow to portions of southeast
Arizona. Snow totals from this evening through Thursday morning
have changed slightly for the mountains since the previous
forecast. Elevations between 2500-4000 ft could see anywhere from
a trace to 2" of snow which would include the Tucson Metro, I-19
corridor, Safford, and Douglas. This area is under a Winter
Weather Advisory. Higher totals remain above 4000 ft of 2"-6"
between 4000ft-6000ft and 6"-14" above 6000 ft elevation. Peaks
could see up to 18" of additional snow. This area remains under a
Winter Storm Warning. To account for additional snow accumulations
Thursday morning with the wrap around moisture, have chosen to
extend these winter headlines through 11 AM Thursday with no
change in areas. Cold temperatures are expected Thursday morning
dropping to around freezing or lower from TO Nation eastward which
could cause any water on roadways to freeze. This ice could cause
hazardous driving conditions Thursday morning during the morning
commute, especially on elevated roadways and bridges/overpasses.
The fly in the ointment with this is that if clouds hang around
overnight it would moderate temperatures to above freezing and ice
would be less of a concern at least for the Tucson Metro.

The low will push east into New Mexico Thursday morning with clouds
clearing throughout the day. Temps will be quite chilly with highs
near 20 degrees below normal and widespread freezing temps Thursday
night into Friday. Currently, there is 28% chance that Tucson won't
get above 50 degrees on Thursday. A relatively weak flow pattern
will follow through the weekend allowing for quiet, dry weather into
early next week with light afternoon breezes. Another chilly day
is forecast for Friday with a rapid warm up Saturday into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/18Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 5k-8k feet AGL, becoming SCT-BKN and lowering from
west to east by 01/22Z. Aft 02/01Z, CIGS at 2k-4k feet AGL and
numerous -SHRA, mixing with and/or changing over to -SHSN aft
02/04Z. MVFR conditions (locally IFR) and mountain obscurations
between 02/03Z and 02/14Z. SFC wind SLY/SWLY at 20-30 kts with gusts
to 35-45 kts thru 02/04Z. SFC wind becoming WLY/NWLY from west to
east aft 02/04Z and diminishing thru the end of the forecast period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold storm system will move into the region
this afternoon and continuing into midday Thursday. Expect windy
conditions areawide this afternoon and evening, with rain and snow
tonight into Thursday. 20-foot winds will be south-southwest at 20-
30 mph and gusts to 30-45 mph this afternoon and evening. Dry
conditions return Thursday night and persist into early next week. A
warming trend will start on Friday, with high temperatures near
seasonal normals on Saturday and then 2-4 degrees above normal
Sunday through Tuesday. Min RH values will lower to around 15
percent in valley locations Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...Here are the rankings for February and Winter 2022-23
for Tucson

February: 54th coolest and 60th wettest
Winter 2022-23: 54th warmest and 26th wettest

March snow stats for Tucson:

Most snow in one day: 6.0" on March 12, 1922
Most recent measurable snow at the airport: 0.3" on March 16, 1991
Most recent trace of snow: March 29-30, 1998

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>506-515.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Thursday for AZZ503-506>514.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Thursday for AZZ503>509.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for AZZ507>509.

&&

Guillet/Lader

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 winter storm, 3 heavy snow, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When: March 1, 3:00 PM MST to March 2, 2:00 AM MST
Where: Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

High winds occurred across eastern Cochise County from the afternoon of March 1 to just past midnight. The peak gust of 63 mph was measured at San Simon at 0103MST. Bisbee-Douglas KDUG ASOS recorded a 61 mph gust the previous afternoon at 1508MST.

Winter Storm, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When: March 1, 6:00 PM MST to March 2, 9:00 AM MST
Where: Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 4 of snow fell in the Patagonia area with gusts as high as 60 mph immediately preceding the changeover to snow.

Winter Storm, Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains

When: March 1, 6:00 PM MST to March 2, 9:00 AM MST
Where: Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 12 inches of snow occurred in Summerhaven with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.

Winter Storm, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When: March 1, 7:00 PM MST to March 2, 9:00 AM MST
Where: White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by: SNOTEL
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 10 to 12 inches of snow occurred in the Hannagan Meadow area with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.

Winter Storm, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When: March 1, 7:00 PM MST to March 2, 11:00 AM MST
Where: Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 6 to 12 inches of snow occurred in the higher elevations of the Dragoon, Mule, Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains, accompanied by strong winds. A gust to 67 mph was recorded south of Patagonia at 6200 ft MSL.

Heavy Snow, Southeast Pinal County

When: March 1, 8:00 PM MST to March 2, 8:00 AM MST
Where: Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 5 inches of snow fell in the Saddlebrooke area and 6 inches in Oracle resulting in difficult travel, especially on secondary roadways.

Winter Storm, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When: March 1, 8:00 PM MST to March 2, 9:00 AM MST
Where: Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 12 inches of snow occurred on Mount Graham with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.

Winter Storm, Chiricahua Mountains

When: March 1, 8:00 PM MST to March 2, 10:00 AM MST
Where: Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 4 inches of snow occurred in the Paradise area and Rucker had a wind gust to 55 mph.

Heavy Snow, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When: March 1, 9:00 PM MST to March 2, 10:00 AM MST
Where: Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 4 to 5 inches of snow fell in the Benson area with 4 inches in the Tombstone area, resulting in difficult driving conditions. One to four inches in the Sierra Vista area caused schools to be closed for the day.

Heavy Snow, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When: March 1, 9:00 PM MST to March 2, 9:00 AM MST
Where: Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

About 4 inches of snow fell in the Klondyke area resulting in difficult travel, especially on secondary roadways.

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Winter Storm: A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.
Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, March 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1088596, 1074205, 1074223, 1074213, 1074221, 1074206, 1074215, 1074217, 1074208, 1074211.