A strong pressure gradient produced high winds across much of East Tennessee through the day on March 3rd. During the afternoon, a line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the area, associated with a cold front.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A strong pressure gradient produced high winds across much of East Tennessee through the day on March 3rd. During the afternoon, a line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the area, associated with a cold front. Numerous trees were blown down with the gradient winds and the thunderstorm winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 1:04 PM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 104 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Plenty of high level clouds across the area today. Latest HREF and deterministic models keep main convective activity starting in the evening hours. Have reduced PoPs for today. Made some minor changes to high temperature forecast but overall looks good. Current thinking of an area of showers and storms moving into the region overnight still looks on track. Locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding a concern along with isolated damaging winds over southeast Tennessee. HRRR and HREF show best chances of tornado tracks west and south of the area but will continue monitor for this potential this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Key Messages: 1. Mild temperatures again today, with highs getting close to records at some locations. 2. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the area tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with a marginal threat of strong to severe storms in southern sections. Discussion: A SW low level flow will set up over the area today as a low pressure system tracks along the OH Valley region and high pressure sits near the Mid Atlantic coast. While we may see more cloud cover today compared to yesterday, warm advection in the SW flow pattern will be a bit stronger, so highs should reach the mid to upper 70s for most of the TN Valley. This will put record highs withing reach for CHA (79) and, to a lesser extent, TYS (80). The cold front trailing this low pressure system is expected to initiate convection across western KY/West TN/AR this afternoon, and this activity will spread east through the evening. CAMS are in pretty good agreement that it will arrive in our Plateau counties around 11 pm, with the bulk of precip occurring between midnight and 12Z, associated with frontogenetic forcing near the surface front. The main impact is expected to be locally heavy rainfall that could result in some minor flooding issues, mainly in the southern half. While flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the threat should be isolated as FFG values are well above forecast QPF in that area, and the showers will be progressive from west to east. Nuisance flooding of typical flood-prone areas seems more likely. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible for the southern Plateau and southern TN Valley, with straight-line winds being the main threat. The lack of instability and the overnight timing of convection does not favor more than a marginal severe threat. We should see a downward trend to precip late in the night as the surface front will be located near our eastern border by 12Z. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Key Messages: 1. A weather system will impact the area on Friday with strong winds likely area-wide, especially across the Mountains and Foothills. 2. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area Friday afternoon. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging straight line winds likely and an isolated tornado possible. Discussion: For part of Thursday we should be in a brief lull in precipitation as the low across the southern plains continues to strengthen and kick out through the Ohio Valley heading into Friday. Thursday afternoon/night precipitation will once again spread into the eastern Tennessee Valley as the front slowly lifts northward heading into Friday morning. At the same time the LLJ will begin to strengthen on the east side of the low, with a greater than 50 knot core expected to move over the eastern TN valley. This along with the tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds across the area, even down into the Valley. Current guidance suggests that wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible down into the valley if we get ample mixing of the jet down to the surface. In the mountains and foothills of the Southern Appalachians the strength and direction of the LLJ will likely line up to produce a strong mountain wave event with wind gusts over 50 mph likely. It's looking likely a wind advisory may be needed for the Valley on Friday and a High Wind Warning in the mountains and foothills. On Friday afternoon/night the main line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area. Forecast soundings continue to show that this will likely be a VERY high shear low CAPE event. The primary concern on Friday will be damaging winds in excess of 70 mph... Which combined with the saturated grounds from previous days rain, and many trees are starting to bloom and leaf out, means that we'll likely have lots of downed trees and power outages on Friday with some of these storms. Forecast soundings do show some very impressive 0-1km shear of 30+ knots, and some models show 90 knots of 0-6km shear. The shear is all speed shear with very little directional shear with this system. This combined with very limited CAPE means that storms could have a difficult time surviving in these very strong winds. So an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but the much more likely and more widespread threat will be storms tapping into the LLJ bringing down the impressive speeds to the surface. The system will finally out of the area by Friday night into Saturday morning leading to cooler and quiet weather over the weekend and into next week. Temperatures are expected to be near && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 Deteoriating flight conditions through the forecast period as another system approaches the area overnight and early Thursday morning. Besides flight conditions dropping to MVFR/IFR conditions, an area of showers and thunderstorms (TYS/CHA) is expected between 04-11Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 69 60 73 / 100 70 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 68 58 73 / 100 60 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 58 67 57 71 / 100 50 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 65 55 68 / 100 60 80 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DH LONG TERM....ABM AVIATION...DH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 347 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-020900- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 347 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 /247 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area tonight and into early Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected, and localized flooding will be possible. Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across the southern Cumberland Plateau, southern Tennessee Valley, and southwest North Carolina. The main threat from storms will be damaging straight- line winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday On Friday, another system will affect the area, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could also be severe with the main concern being damaging straight line winds, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Besides severe storms, windy conditions are expected area-wide on Friday ahead of the line of storms especially across the Appalachian Mountains and foothills. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight into early Thursday morning, and again on Friday.
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:35 UTC.
16 thunderstorm wind, 5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The wind gust was measured on a private weather station in Walland.
The wind gust was measured at the Camp Creek wind tower.
Multiple trees were blown down near Jasper.
Trees were blown down on top of Whitwell Mountain along Highway 108.
Trees were blown down around Dunlap and western portions of the county.
Multiple trees were blown down.
The wind gust was measured at the airport (KRZR).
Trees were blown down on Highway 11 between Riceville and Calhoun.
Multiple trees were blown down.
The wind gust was measured at Cove Mountain.
Trees were uprooted and snapped, and a roof was damaged.
Multiple trees and power lines were blown down.
Trees were blown down in northeast Madisonville, off Stinnett Road.
Trees were blown down in northeast Madisonville, off Stinnett Road.
The wind gust was measured by the ASOS at McGee Tyson Airport.
Multiple trees and power lines were blown down around the county.
Trees were blown down in the Dandridge area.
A tree was reported to have fallen on a woman in a vehicle. She was taken to the hospital with minor injuries.
It was reported that the Greene County Highway Department cleared at least 20 trees from roadways. There were also approximately 1,300 power outages and numerous power poles down across the county.
Multiple trees were blown down in Blountville.
Over 75 trees were reported to have blown down around La Follette. One tree fell on a man riding a motorcycle. He died from his injuries.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Wind, Campbell | 2023-03-03 | 56 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1077181, 1077183, 1077156, 1077157, 1077158, 1077159, 1077178, 1077160, 1077161, 1077177, 1077162, 1077163, 1077164, 1077165, 1077172, 1077166, 1077167, 1077168, 1077173, 1077170, 1077176.