Ahead of showers and storms, gusty gradient winds downed trees. In one case, a tree fell onto a vehicle resulting in a fatality.
Every event with a place to put it; 13 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Ahead of showers and storms, gusty gradient winds downed trees. In one case, a tree fell onto a vehicle resulting in a fatality.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 6:23 AM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 623 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 Today and Tonight: Another warm day is forecast across the region today, with a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico reinforcing above normal temperatures through the South. Highs will be about A shortwave trough passing over the northern U.S. today will nudge a frontal boundary toward a line from central AR/TN/KY by tonight. Mid-level cap strengthened by the ridge will allow for warm, moist air to continue advecting north toward this frontal boundary through this afternoon. A combination of daytime heating and pressure falls with the wave farther north should be enough to overcome the cap in the vicinity of the front this afternoon/evening time frame. It's expected that convection beginning along the boundary in the ArkLaTex region toward northern Mississippi this evening could become severe due to favorable instability and wind shear. There is a Slight Risk for severe storms along this axis, capturing a portion of far southeast Arkansas and northern Mississippi (north of a Greenville to Aberdeen line) overnight, with the primary threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Given the boundary in place, a tornado cannot be ruled out either as storms move east along the line. The threat for severe storms becomes less certain farther south, so a Marginal Risk is in place north of a Rayville, LA to Macon, MS line to account for a few possible strong to severe storms south of the main threat. An axis of heavy rain potential will also exist where storms develop and lay down a boundary through tonight, so a Limited flash flood threat has been introduced to far northern parts of the area tonight heading into tomorrow. /NF/ Thursday through next week... Upper troughing will be impinging on our area from the west to start the extended period on Thursday. This will foster a heightened risk for severe weather and the events and possible outcomes surrounding this event will be the primary focus of this discussion. A detailed synopsis of this threat is outlined below. After the potential severe weather, Friday will be noticeably cooler with a westerly wind that will lessen and become more northerly through the day. Highs look to top out in the upper 60s F and lower 70s F. Substantially drier air filters in over the weekend with surface high pressure in control. Dry with intermittent, mostly high, clouds. Lows 40s F highs 60s/70s F. Heading into next week, we will see some moistening and warming as the center of the surface high progresses eastward and the western flank brings southerlies back to the area. We return to much above normal temperatures by Monday and Tuesday when highs will be in the upper 70s F to near 80 F and overnight lows, buoyed by increasing boundary layer moisture, only falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s F. The increases in humidity will foster increasing rain chances heading into Tuesday. Late Thursday/Early Friday Severe Storm Risk: A compact closed upper low and shortwave trough extending to its south will be moving across the southern plains states late Thursday into Friday morning. Downstream, a potent upper ridge will be parked over southeastern coastal states. As the upper trough nears the Mississippi Valley, some deflection to the northeast is likely as the upper ridge resists the troughing influence. As this occurs, the trough will take on a negative tilt and the height gradient and velocities will become maximized. This is expected to yield potent upper divergence/diffluence atop a warm and moist boundary layer. Lingering mid level warmth thanks to the upper ridge as well as timing of the system at the convective diurnal minimum (very early morning hours) will serve to limit total thermodynamic instability but SBCAPE will likely still be in the 750-1250 J/KG range as a robust squall roars through in the predawn hours west of I-55 and the early morning hours to the east. With surface winds remaining backed, aided by substantial height/pressure falls, winds will veer dramatically with height from late Thursday into Friday morning with surface winds likely SSE and 3 KM winds out of the SW. With velocities increasing from 10-20 kts at the surface to 65 kts at 850 mb, this will yield in excess of 400 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH) and perhaps as much as 600 0-3 km SRH. Above the core of the low level jet around 850 mb, a relative weakness/backing is possible in the flow. This could serve to act to disrupt or slow storm organization. In the presence of intense shear overall, however, this shortfall will likely be overcome in segments along the line or with any discrete or semidiscrete storm ahead of the line. With ample shear, substantial lift, and deep boundary layer moisture (though marginal instability), it still appears that all modes of severe weather will be possible across the area. Tornadoes and damaging wind are likely and large hail is conditionally possible. Some of these tornadoes could be strong. Should storms remain confined to the rapidly advancing quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) the overall risk for large hail in excess of a quarter to half dollar would be lower, though the risk for damaging wind would be made higher. While a discrete storm mode would also lend itself to higher chances of strong tornadoes, tornadoes associated with embedded supercell structures could be possible despite the less than ideal storm mode likelihood. One plausible scenario that could result in at least a storm or two out ahead of the squall would be dependent on mesoscale aid of possible outflow remnants across northern Mississippi and into Arkansas from the convective activity we will likely see tonight in that vicinity (refer to Today and Tonight section above). Should a suitable outflow boundary reside in that area, its possible capping could be overcome with the additional convergence and boundary layer moisture pooling. Low level shear could also become enhanced on a local scale with this possible outcome. This is just one of numerous possibilities that highlights the dependence of Thursday night's severe potential on what exactly transpires this evening and unfortunately poses strong limitations to forecast confidence. Careful attention will be focused on the eventual outcome of today's activity and it is likely that a much more confident forecast will be possible by tomorrow evening ahead of this activity. Readers are encouraged to check back frequently for updates. With decaying instability the further east the squall traverses and the better upper dynamics lifting increasingly north, the best combination of severe ingredients may be in the vicinity of as well as west of central Mississippi including Louisiana and Arkansas. Areas in far eastern and southern Mississippi including the Pine Belt will still see some risk for strong to severe storms, though the threat for a strong tornado or hail larger than quarters may be lower in these areas. For this reason, an Enhanced Risk (3/5) for severe weather was maintained in the higher risk, western areas with a Slight Risk (2/5) delineated in the far south and east. Ahead of and just behind the convective activity, increasingly tight pressure gradient and rapidly lowering surface pressure will allow for substantial increases in the background wind field. For this reason, an HWO product highlighting the risk for strong non- thunderstorm winds was maintained. The strongest winds will likely be along and west of I-55 where winds could gust 40-45 mph at times from Thursday evening until Friday afternoon. /86/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 A low stratus deck moving north across the area to start the period will bring periods of MVFR ceilings through around 15Z to 18Z today before lifting into the VFR range. The chance for SHRA and TSRA will increase near the northern Mississippi TAF sites by 00Z Thursday and continue through the remainder of the period. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 82 57 70 / 20 50 70 20 Meridian 67 81 61 73 / 20 50 50 30 Vicksburg 68 83 57 68 / 30 40 90 10 Hattiesburg 69 83 65 74 / 10 20 40 20 Natchez 69 83 56 69 / 20 20 80 0 Greenville 67 76 55 63 / 70 90 90 20 Greenwood 67 77 57 66 / 70 80 90 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && LP/NF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 445 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 ARZ074-075-MSZ025-027>029-034-021045- Ashley-Chicot-Leflore-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Washington- 445 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight This afternoon into tonight, severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail larger than golf balls is possible. A tornado can't be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas eastward across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Flooding is possible for portions of northern Mississippi through Thursday night. 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall in a short period of time resulting in localized flash flooding of primarily urban and low lying areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 20 to 25 mph and the potential for wind gusts greater than 30 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Thursday night. MSZ018-019-026-021045- Bolivar-Sunflower-Grenada- 445 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tonight Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail larger than golf balls is possible. A tornado can't be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Tonight, locally heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches could fall over a short period of time. Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Flooding is possible for portions of northwest Mississippi and portions of north central Mississippi through Thursday night. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 20 to 25 mph and the potential for wind gusts greater than 30 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Thursday night. LAZ007>009-015-MSZ030>033-035>042-021045- Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw- Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena- Sharkey-Yazoo- 445 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Flooding is possible for portions of northwest Mississippi and portions of north central Mississippi through Thursday night. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 20 to 25 mph and the potential for wind gusts greater than 30 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Thursday night. LAZ016-023>026-MSZ043>066-072>074-021045- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Madison MS- Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale- Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams- Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones- Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 445 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Flooding is possible for portions of northwest Mississippi and portions of north central Mississippi through Thursday night. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely across the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail up to half dollar size. While the entire area is at risk for severe weather, the greatest risk for destructive storms will likely extend from Louisiana and Arkansas and across portions of central and northern Mississippi. Timing will likely be midnight through daybreak Friday west of Interstate 55 to mid- morning Friday to the east. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) A few downed trees and power lines will be possible due to sustained winds ranging from 20 to 25 mph and the potential for wind gusts greater than 30 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile vehicles. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Thursday through Thursday night. 86 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. *FLOODING* Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely. Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible. Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely. Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 strong wind, 3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak wind gust of 50 knots from 260 degrees was measured by the KJAN ASOS.
A tree was downed blocking MS Highway 500 due to gusty gradient winds.
A tree was downed on the Natchez Trace near mile marker 141.
A tree was downed across Gowall Road and a tree fell on a power line along old Highway 27.
A tree was downed on Roberts Road.
A tree fell on a home along 25th Avenue, downing utility lines.
A tree was uprooted and fell across Estelle Drive, downing utility lines. A large tree at the Governor's mansion was blown down across North Congress Street, damaging some windows in a building across the street. A tree was downed on utility lines at Laurel Street and Howard Street. Multiple other large limbs were downed in the Belhaven neighborhood.
An initial wind gust of 58 mph was measured by CWOP station F5442 Shelby, with a peak gust of 61 mph at 831 am cst. Gusts over 58 mph lasted until 835 am cst.
A large tree was uprooted at the WLBT news station.
A large rotted tree branch fell on an SUV along Wildwood Road, East of Bennet Road. The occupant of the SUV, a 65 year old woman, died.
Several trees and power poles were blown down in Starkville over a 15 minute period due to strong gradient winds before a line of showers came through, and with the line of showers. A tree fell onto a house and injured one occupant. Two vehicles were damaged by fallen trees. A large rotted tree next to Davis Wade stadium snapped and damaged a few cars.
A section of tin roofing was blown off a metal barn along Lancaster Road.
A large tree was blown down onto Mississippi Highway 12 at Dodson Road.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Wind, Yazoo | 2023-03-03 | 65 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101850, 1101835, 1101838, 1101840, 1101842, 1101844, 1101846, 1101853, 1101857, 1101860, 1101885, 1101861, 1101864.