Montana, 2018

High Wind in Montana, December 13, 2018

December 13, 2018 · NWS TFX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Westerly flow aloft strengthens. Cross barrier flow causes strong winds along the Rocky|Mountain Front.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

Westerly flow aloft strengthens. Cross barrier flow causes strong winds along the Rocky|Mountain Front.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 13, 4:08 AM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 13, 4:08 AM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
408 AM MST Thu Dec 13 2018

...Aviation Discussion Update...

.SYNOPSIS..

Strong west winds along the Rocky Mountain Front this morning
will spread east out onto the plains and south over the ridge tops
of southwest Montana today, as some light snow remains over the
western mountains. High pressure building in from the south will
diminish any lingering snow and decrease winds somewhat tonight
into Friday. However, a Pacific disturbance will bring another
round of mountain precipitation and potentially strong winds to
the region for Saturday. Temperatures will remain above normal,
with especially mild temperatures over the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...The westerly flow aloft over Montana has
strengthened overnight, bringing strong winds to the Rocky
Mountain Front once again and keeping light snow above mountain
pass level along the Rocky Mountain Front. These winds will likely
spread east out onto the plains throughout the morning. Sustained
winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph will be likely along
the Front and onto immediate adjacent plains, but gusts could
reach 85 mph closer to the Front itself. Will therefore continue
the High Wind Warning there through today. Of concern is the
potential for these increased winds to cause ground blizzard
conditions due to the newly fallen snow in the mountains,
especially over Marias Pass. Winds will become more diffuse as
they spread out over the plains, mainly bringing 35 to 50 mph
gusts there. Ridge tops and a few other favored canyons in
southwest Montana may also see gusts this strong. The high
pressure ridge will build further into the forecast area overnight
into Friday, which will diminish any lingering precipitation and
cause winds to be not quite as strong, but still quite breezy. A
low pressure trough will then move from the Pacific Northwest
across Montana Friday night through Saturday. This will help
strengthen westerly winds again across the area, which may require
additional High Wind highlights for the Rocky Mountain Front. It
will also bring a good chance of snow to the mountains along the
Continental Divide. Mild December temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees
above normal will continue over the plains, but southwest Montana
will remain only up to 10 degrees above normal. Coulston

Saturday night through Wednesday night...main forecast concerns
over the long term period of the forecast are strong winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front, primarily mountain/mountain pass snow,
and above normal temperatures over the plains of North Central
Montana and valleys of Southwest Montana.

Upper level pattern to begin the long term will see a ridge
building and sliding east into the Northern Rockies through the
morning hours on Monday. An open wave over the Pacific Northwest
Monday morning, will then quickly race east through the day on
Monday, crossing the Northern Rockies and moving into the Northern
High Plains Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. As this wave
slides east, it will begin to break down the ridge overhead, which
is generally a good synoptic setup for breezy to gusty winds over
the region. Following the passage of the wave, upper level
ridging will slowly build back into the Northern Rockies through
Wednesday night, with primarily southwest flow aloft across the
region over this time. At the surface, despite upper level ridging
moving overhead Saturday night, surface pressure gradient will
remain strong along the Rocky Mountain Front from the overnight
hours on Saturday and into Sunday morning. This will lead to
continued breezy to windy conditions here. These conditions will
then overspread the plains of NC Montana as the wave crosses the
region, however, High Winds are not expected at this time. The
transition to southwest flow aloft will bring a return to some
precipitation, in the form of snow, to the Continental Divide and
mountains of SW Montana. It should be noted that significant
differences do exist between model guidance with how much
precipitation is possible over this timeframe, which gives below
normal confidence in amounts of QPF/snow. Finally, strong winds
look to setup shop once again along the Rocky Mountain Front from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 12Z TAF.

Expect predominantly VFR conditions with periods of MVFR due to CIG
BKN030 at KBZN and KEKS. Expect strong gusty winds with low level
wind shear occurring throughout the forecast area.
-Fogleman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  33  53  32 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  45  30  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  44  21  44  25 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  40  15  42  23 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  27   1  34  13 /  10  10   0  30
DLN  37  10  38  18 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  47  28  56  30 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  42  28  53  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon Eastern
Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 13, 2:07 AM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
207 AM MST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.38W
12/13/2018  M56 MPH          GLACIER            MT   ASOS

&&

MOLDAN
Local storm report, Dec 13, 3:11 AM MST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
311 AM MST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING          48.59N 113.14W
12/11/2018  M75 MPH          GLACIER            MT   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA FROM A
            BROADCAST MEDIA SITE. LOCATION AND TIME ARE
            ESTIMATES FROM THE REPORT.

&&

MOLDAN
Local storm report, Dec 13, 3:28 AM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
328 AM MST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.38W
12/13/2018  M41 MPH          GLACIER            MT   ASOS

            BETWEEN 0100 AND 0300 LST THE AVERAGE WIND
            SPEED AT CUT BANK AIRPORT WAS SUSTAINED AT
            41 MPH. THE PEAK WIND GUST OVER THIS TIME
            FRAME WAS 56 MPH AT 0156 LST.

&&

MOLDAN
Local storm report, Dec 13, 3:32 AM MST, 2 hours 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM              47.98N 112.61W
12/13/2018  M58 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

&&

MOLDAN
Local storm report, Dec 13, 4:08 AM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
408 AM MST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.38W
12/13/2018  M60 MPH          GLACIER            MT   ASOS

&&

MOLDAN
Local storm report, Dec 13, 4:33 AM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
433 AM MST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 AM     SNOW             EAST GLACIER PARK       48.44N 113.22W
12/12/2018  M3.5 INCH        GLACIER            MT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM EAST
            GLACIER PARK.

&&

MOLDAN

Event by event

3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front

When
December 13, 6:30 AM MST
Where
Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured
70 kt (81 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

High winds gust of 81 mph measured at mesonet station delmt, dellwo - 13 w bynum.

High Wind, Cascade

When
December 13, 10:30 AM MST
Where
Cascade forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS

High wind gust of 59 mph measured at asos station gtf, great falls airport.

High Wind, Judith Basin

When
December 13, 10:36 AM MST
Where
Judith Basin forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

High winds gust of 58 mph measured at mesonet station mtgys, geyser us87 mdt.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 796749, 797093, 797095.