High Wind in Kansas, December 13, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Strong wind event across western Kansas is still on tap for our
Thursday. At the time of this discussion write up winds in eastern
Colorado were already gusting to 40-45 kts and winds will begin to
pick up to those speeds in western Kansas in the next few hours.
Sustained winds through the day will be 35-45 mph with gusts
approaching 60 mph especially for areas from Syracuse to Dodge
City south to the Oklahoma border.

The upper level trough will move out of eastern Colorado into
western Kansas through the day which will bring some passing
stratus clouds through the area. NAM is wanting to hint at some
sprinkles for our southeast zones...so there is a small chance of
precip today from Pratt to Med Lodge but nothing major is
expected. Temperatures will be coolest in the east with the longer
cloud cover and CAA through the day. The west will see some sun by
the late morning through midday. Overall highs will be in the low
to mid 40s.

Tonight...winds should quickly diminish after sunset and become
light from west to east. Clouds should clear out from the east and
the whole area will see clear skies through the night. Given the
inherited forecast I liked what I saw with lows going lower than
guidance given this scenario. Lows will be from the mid teens in
the west to the mid 20s in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Quiet conditions are expected throughout the long term with a
fairly persistent forecast through the weekend into early next
week. The trough explained in the short term will continue to
move eastward through the day Friday and upper level ridging will
move into the central plains. The upper level pattern stay fairly
zonal to slight ridging through Monday night. GFS and Euro are
both indicating another large trough and closed low moving into
the desert southwest by Tuesday. Present track keeps the low well
to the south in Texas through Wednesday so at this point it
shouldn't impact our area...however it will be something to
monitor should the track change to a more northerly path.

Temperatures overall in the long term will be seasonal with highs
in the 50s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

MVFR cigs at KHYS and KDDC will gradually dissipate through the afternoon
hours with all terminals in VFR conditions by 00z. North winds will
continue to see wind gusts around 35 to 45 knots this afternoon with
winds diminishing by this evening. Winds at KDDC may continue to see
gusts to around 25 knots into the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  22  52  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  44  18  53  21 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  22  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  21  53  21 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  27  51  25 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
217 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 /117 AM MST Thu Dec 13 2018/

Strong gusty winds will occur across western Kansas through much
of our Thursday.

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Sustained winds out of the north 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
will occur across western Kansas through the day.  Impacts to
travel are likely especially on east-west highways.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Significant risk
* Snow: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Generally quiet weather after Friday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1015 AM CST THU DEC 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE DODGE CITY        37.77N 99.97W
12/13/2018  M53 MPH          FORD               KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION DDC, DODGE CITY REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&