There was more rain on the 13th/14th. A storm system aloft dove out of the Rockies into the southern Plains, and quickly intensified as it headed along the Gulf Coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
There was more rain on the 13th/14th. A storm system aloft dove out of the Rockies into the southern Plains, and quickly intensified as it headed along the Gulf Coast. Central Arkansas got hammered on the 13th, with over three inches of rain from Little Rock (Pulaski County) to just west of Searcy (White County). North of Jacksonville (Pulaski County), at least one road was covered by water in several locations. Just northeast of Sheridan (Grant County), a county road was flooded.
Not much changed on the 14th, with the most rain (one to two inches) in central sections of the state. Forty eight hour amounts through 600 am CST on the 15th included 5.72 inches at Little Rock (Pulaski County), 5.36 inches at North Little Rock (Pulaski County), 5.04 inches at Marche (Pulaski County), 4.79 inches at Cabot (Lonoke County), 4.53 inches at Crystal Valley (Pulaski County), and 3.98 inches at Keo (Lonoke County), 3.23 inches at Batesville (Independence County), and 3.16 inches at Searcy (White County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 13, 3:11 PM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 311 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 .DISCUSSION... 12Z Subjective RAOB analysis showed a strong shortwave trough over the southern high plains with 500dm height falls of 10 to 11 dm over the Texas Panhandle. At the 850 mb level a dew point of 10 deg C was observed over Shreveport with a south-southwest wind of 20 kts. The 700 mb upper low was located in between the 500 mb intersection of the trough and the 850 mb low pressure system which was centered over central Oklahoma. The vertical tilt of the low pressure system to the west combined with the strong 500 mb height falls to the east both suggest strong differential positive vorticity advection (DPVA) was sending large scale forcing for ascent over Texas and Oklahoma this morning. The warm and moist air advection over Arkansas noted at the 850 mb level led to widespread rain shower activity throughout the day today, and will continue to do so through this evening. From the 7 to 500 mb level the temperature difference was only 17 deg C, so mid-level lapse rates were only slightly steeper than moist adiabatic with saturation or near saturation noted up through the dendritic growth zone. The moisture in the dendritic growth zone will lead to efficient rainfall production, and could lead to lightning...however the meager lapse rates combined with persistent latent heat release will likely keep lapse rates near moist adiabatic limiting the potential for free convection and charge separation in these rain showers. As a result, kept thunder out of the forecast and expect numerous to widespread rain showers to continue through tonight. Due to the relatively efficient nature of the rainfall production, localized flash flooding will remain possible wherever rainfall trains through tonight. Decided against going with a flash flood watch because widespread flash flooding is not expected with local river levels relatively low, and reservoir capacity is high keeping the flooding potential in check and generally away from people's homes and off of major roadways. Rainfall rates of one half inch to one inch per hour are expected, but this is within the heavier bands of rainfall. Rainfall will be on and off for most locations also limiting the widespread flooding potential. Rainfall will continue on Friday as the strong DPVA spreads over Arkansas and warm, humid air advection continues, but from the east in more of a trough of warm air aloft (TROWAL) configuration as opposed to the warm sector Gulf isentropic lift that we're experiencing today. The cold core of the upper low will move over far southeast Arkansas Friday afternoon and evening, and we may have to watch out for some isolated hailers within this cold core region tomorrow afternoon. Do not expect severe storms, but if anything approaches severe levels, hail will really be the only threat. Expect that if any hail does form, it will remain small in nature and closer to sleet size than severe (quarter) size. Temperatures will hardly change at all over the next 24 hours as nearly persistent rainfall will keep temperatures in the low 50s across much of the state. Rain will clear out on Saturday as the upper low pulls off to the east, leaving large scale forcing for subsidence in its wake. It will be chilly Saturday night into Sunday morning under clear skies as the upper level system is replaced by weak ridging aloft. Sunday looks to be a nice day to get outdoors though with highs in the upper 50s under mostly clear/sunny skies. After the weekend...a complex upper level low pressure system will move through the subtropical jet and approach Arkansas mid to late in the week ahead. This means that Monday through Wednesday look to remain dry for now, with rain moving in maybe Wednesday evening and remaining in the forecast through the day on Thursday. This next upper level storm system appears to be a quick mover and should be out of the area by Friday leading to mostly clear skies as we head into next weekend. Cavanaugh && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 49 52 42 51 / 90 100 70 40 Camden AR 54 57 44 56 / 90 80 50 10 Harrison AR 45 47 37 51 / 90 90 70 20 Hot Springs AR 53 55 42 55 / 100 90 60 10 Little Rock AR 52 54 44 55 / 100 90 60 20 Monticello AR 53 57 44 54 / 90 70 50 20 Mount Ida AR 52 54 41 55 / 100 90 60 10 Mountain Home AR 46 48 38 50 / 100 90 80 30 Newport AR 50 52 44 50 / 80 90 70 40 Pine Bluff AR 53 55 44 53 / 100 90 50 20 Russellville AR 53 55 42 55 / 100 90 60 20 Searcy AR 51 53 43 53 / 90 90 60 30 Stuttgart AR 52 54 45 53 / 90 90 60 30 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Short / Long Term...CAVANAUGH
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 221 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141100- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 221 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Widespread rainfall will continue through the night, although intermittent breaks in shower activity are expected. Some flooding of creeks, streams, and poor drainage areas will be possible, so use caution if traveling. Widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across southern portions of the state. Severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday Rain will continue Friday through very early Saturday as the aforementioned storm moves through the region. Total rainfall of several inches will be possible through Friday night. This heavy rainfall may result in an increased threat for flash and/or river flooding for parts of the area. However...the threat for severe and winter weather looks low at this time. Breezy winds with gusts up to 20 mph are expected Friday. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 18 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:20 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was flowing over Peters Rd. in several spots.
Water was covering Grant County Rd. 82 in several places.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 795231, 795232.