Oregon, 2018Dense Fog in Oregon, December 13, 2018
December 13, 2018 · NWS MFR · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A 26 year old Eagle Point man was killed when he was struck by a vehicle while attempting to cross Interstate 5 on foot. The accident occurred around 13/0615 PST near milepost 33 (Central Point, OR).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A 26 year old Eagle Point man was killed when he was struck by a vehicle while attempting to cross Interstate 5 on foot. The accident occurred around 13/0615 PST near milepost 33 (Central Point, OR). It was dark and dense fog was reported in the area.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 13, 4:22 AM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 13, 4:22 AM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
422 AM PST Thu Dec 13 2018
.AVIATION...For the 13/12Z TAFs...High cloud is limiting fog
formation this morning, but there are enough breaks in the cloud to
make fog at least possible at KRBG and KMFR until sunrise.
Otherwise, conditions are expected to be VFR at all terminals today.
An approaching front will cause southeast winds to increase tonight,
and this, along with increasing cloud, should limit or prevent fog
again tonight. -Wright
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM PST Thu Dec 13 2018/
SHORT TERM...
Strong winds are the main theme for the weather system arriving
Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The latest round of data
suggests the low pressure center will form farther south than
anticipated resulting in strong winds across southern Oregon. This
has also prompted us to issue a high wind watch along the coast.
We will admit that all the weather model data is not in complete
agreement. Some guidance suggests the stronger winds will persist
later into the afternoon, whereas some suggests it will stop at
noon. Even with some of this inconsistency, we felt how the latest
guidance brought the low farther south warranted a high wind watch
along the coast.
The coast isn't the only area of concern. We are expecting
the Shasta valley will start to see the stronger winds as early as
Thursday evening before ramping up late into Friday morning.
As for the locations east of the Cascades, model guidance still
shows 700 mb winds around 70 to 80 knots. The 80 knots is more of
an outlier, but this is what we would like to see for a high wind
warning east of the Cascades.
Strong winds will also impact the Rogue Valley near Ashland. We
dont think we'll see them that strong in Medford on the other
hand. We usually like to see the south east winds aloft line up
with the valley to see the stronger winds in Medford.
Aside from the wind concerns, we are expecting rain and snow with
this strong cold front arriving Friday. Since this is a quick
moving cold front type system, we're only forecasting about 1
inch of rain along the coast with areas farther inland only seeing
0.25 inches to as low as 0.1 inches east of the Cascades. As a
result, not much snow with this system either. Only 2-4 inches
near popular tourist destinations areas such as Crater Lake and
Mt Ashland. Snow levels will generally be hovering around 4500
feet. Therefore, Siskiyou summit could see 1-2 inches if the road
surfaces remain cold.
After this deep trough moves through, we'll have to watch out for
more weather headlines around Sunday as the next low moves in.
Read the long term discussion issued yesterday for more
information on that system.
-Smith
LONG TERM.../Issued at 3pm Wednesday December 12th 2018/
..Saturday night through Wednesday...
After Saturday's dry interlude another strong front will bear
down on the northwest Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturday
night will experience mainly increasing clouds and south winds -
probably a Gale Force event for the waters with a low-end high
wind warning event for the south coast and some advisories
possible inland. The majority of precipitation will hold off until
Sunday as the associated upper trough splits coming into the
west, with most energy going north or south of our warning area.
So this should not be a major impact precipitation event as the
front moves through Sunday, plus snow levels will be fairly high -
around 6000 feet. Somewhat lower snow levels are expected for the
next system Monday which will probably remain somewhat benign as
well. Unlike the Sunday event, this system should allow snow to
fall 500 to a thousand feet lower and produce higher accumulations
in the Cascades around Crater Lake.
-Stavish
MARINE...Updated 215 AM PST Thursday 13 December 2018...Steep to
very steep, mainly swell driven, seas continue this morning. Winds
have already turned southeast and will increase through the day
today as a strong front approaches. Winds reach gale force tonight
and continue into Friday as the front moves through. As mentioned
by previous shifts, one model (the NAM) continues to show strong
surface low pressure forming along the front and moving into our
waters mid-day Friday. This would slow the front down and produce
much stronger winds - probably storm force. The NAM is an outlier
compare to other models which show the low weaker and further
north lessening the threat of higher winds. In addition, the NAM
is often an outlier in this regard, but that does not mean it's
wrong this time. It is notable that the GFS came in with a low
slightly farther south that previous runs. The wind forecast has
been adjusted toward a compromise between these to extremes. The
takeaway for mariners is that the current forecast of gales
tonight into Friday is the least we should expect - it may be
stronger. We'll keep a close eye on it.
Whatever the case turns out to be with the winds, this will be
followed quickly by a very powerful west swell, and the combination
of this swell and residual fresh swell (or wind wave, depending on
timing) will drive combined seas to as high as 25 feet by late
Friday.
The next front is expected late Saturday into Sunday, and this is
likely to be AT LEAST gales again. Guidance shows this front to be
slower than the first, and this may produce a more prolonged wind
event over the waters, which means the potential to whip up very
large wind waves. This front will be followed by a large swell, and
guidance still shows the potential for this to be one of the highest
swell events of the season. Needless to say, Sunday could feature
extremely high combined seas. Expect this active pattern to continue
well into next week, so be prepared for additional heavy swell
trains and periods of strong winds with heavy rain. -Wright
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
ORZ021-022.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
ORZ030-031.
CA...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
CAZ085.
High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.Dense Fog, Jackson County
- When
- December 13, 6:14 AM PST to 6:16 AM PST
- Where
- Jackson County forecast zone
- Deaths
- 0 direct, 1 indirect
- Reported by
- Newspaper
- Coordinates
- 42.432, -122.728 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A 26 year old Eagle Point man was killed when he was struck by a vehicle while attempting to cross Interstate 5 on foot. The accident occurred around 13/0615 PST near milepost 33 (Central Point, OR). It was dark and dense fog was reported in the area.
- Dense Fog
- Fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less, filed where it caused accidents or disruption.
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