Winter Storm in California, March 6 to 7, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
845 AM PST WED MAR 6 2002

UPDATES THIS MORNING TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN, AS
MONTEREY AND HANFORD RADARS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF ECHOES SPREADING
EAST IN A HURRY. WILL OPT TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH AND LIKELY TO SOUTH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
BAKERSFIELD AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WELL DEVELOPED
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE BAY AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
CENTER AND VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW IS NOW CROSSING
130W AND HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE BAY AREA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA
AND THE 12Z MESO ETA GENERATES CAPES TO AROUND 400 J/KG DOWN TO THE
YOSEMITE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SMALL
THREAT OF THUNDER IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND THIS SEEMS FINE.

AS FOR THE SNOW PROSPECTS IN THE SIERRA, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MORNING MODEL QPF SUGGESTS
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES IN THE YOSEMITE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS FOR SNOW LEVELS LATEST MESO ETA SUGGESTS LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL
FINALLY SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS THE SECOND EVEN COLDER
SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. THATS ALL
FOR NOW.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF
       KERN COUNTY LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

DUDLEY