Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

* KEY MESSAGES:

- Elevated storms over South Dakota will need to be watched for
  strong storm risk over western MN this morning.

- Severe storms expected over western MN this afternoon, gradually
  weakening as they spread east this evening. Overall severe threat
  is lower than it was Wednesday.

- Near-record highs possible today but will depend on cloud cover
  from morning storms.

A brief lull in storms early this morning is accompanied by
widespread fog over western and southern MN, some of which is locally
dense. A dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 13Z,
although increasing clouds from the west may warrant an early
cancellation for some western MN counties. Meanwhile elevated morning
convection is going strong over eastern SD at the nose of a 55-kt
850 hPa jet. High-resolution model guidance has had mixed success
resolving this activity, and is highly variable with its eventual
evolution later this morning. Some guidance such as the HRRR keeps
this activity fairly scattered and quickly lifts it north out of the
forecast area, while others suggest a more impactful convective
complex spreading east into western and central MN later this
morning. Given the tendency for morning elevated convection to
outperform model guidance at times (Weds morning for example)...will
need to keep an eye on western parts of the CWA for a potential hail
risk through the morning.

Hot and humid conditions remain on track for this afternoon with the
potential to approach record highs (90 at MSP). However this will be
highly dependent on cloud cover from the morning convection to the
west, which could especially keep temperatures down across northern
and western portions of the forecast area. Thus no heat advisories
planned at this time.

Widespread storms are then expected to fire across South Dakota and
Nebraska later this afternoon and race into Minnesota through the
late afternoon and early evening. Upper-level ascent for these storms
will be extensive and will favor rapid upgrowth into a large
convective system, possibly before they even reach the forecast area.
Strong instability and modest shear will favor supercells at the
onset, capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. This threat
looks to be maximized west of the forecast area across NE/SD. By the
time storms reach western Minnesota damaging winds should be the
main concern as they congeal into an MCS. A few very strong wind
gusts are possible over western MN given the degree of instability.
However, conditions look favorable for strong outflow/cold pools
which look likely to overcome these storms pretty quickly, and shear
profiles do not appear strong enough to keep in balance with the cold
pool structure. The result is likely to be an outflow boundary that
quickly outraces storms and leads to gradual weakening as storms
move into central and eastern MN later this evening. This weakening
trend seems supported by nearly all high-res model guidance. Thus,
do not expect the widespread severe wind event that was experienced
Wednesday evening across the Twin Cities and surrounding areas, and
expect that most severe weather this time should remain focused west
of US Highway 71.

The remainder of the forecast looks fairly quiet with quasi-zonal
upper flow settling in over the weekend and into much of next week.
Temperatures over the weekend will remain several degrees above
normal with much lower humidity values. Next week should see
temperatures returning closer to normal, highs in the mid/upper 60s,
while chances for more widespread precipitation return by Weds and
Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Stubborn 1/2 to 1/4 mile fog has refused to burn off so far this
morning at many of our TAF locations, but should disappear rather
quickly with more sun as well as increasing southeasterly winds.
Cloud bases will be elevated for much of the day until we begin to
see convective cumulus, with most sites seeing TSRA at some point
this afternoon and evening. The timing window of TSRA will likely
shrink with the 18z TAFs as CAMs get a better handle on how things
will evolve storm wise. Winds could gust up to 25kts main at 100-130
for much of the day.

KMSP...The main concerns are how long fog will take to dissipate this
morning, as well as the prime window for TSRA. CIGS will be mainly
VFR once the morning fog is gone, with brief MVFR/IFR possible once
TSRA arrives.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15g25kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
444 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
130945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
444 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this morning over western
Minnesota, and again this afternoon and evening across much of the
region. Large hail will be the primary threat this morning, and
damaging winds later today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1001 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ042-043-048-049-055-057-058-121530-
Morrison MN-Kandiyohi MN-Stearns MN-Meeker MN-Pope MN-Swift MN-
Todd MN-
1001 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Meeker,
southeastern Pope, southeastern Todd, Stearns, eastern Swift,
southwestern Morrison and northern Kandiyohi Counties through 1030 AM
CDT...

At 1000 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Swanville to Kerkhoven. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Upsala and Swanville around 1005 AM CDT.
  Flensburg around 1010 AM CDT.
  Willmar and Bowlus around 1020 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Little Falls, New
London and Spicer.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 123 and 155.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 140 and 157.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 51 and 85.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota near mile marker 6.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 123 and 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4606 9402 4582 9423 4582 9435 4576 9428
      4510 9484 4513 9525 4515 9525 4515 9555
      4601 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 261DEG 29KT 4591 9462 4518 9530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     HAIL             2 NNW LITTLE FALLS      46.01N 94.38W
05/12/2022  E1.00 INCH       MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1031 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE LITTLE FALLS       45.95N 94.33W
05/12/2022  M59 MPH          MORRISON           MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KLXL LITTLE FALLS AP.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1034 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ043-049-050-057-058-121600-
Benton MN-Morrison MN-Kandiyohi MN-Stearns MN-Meeker MN-
1034 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Meeker,
northwestern Benton, central Stearns, southwestern Morrison and
northeastern Kandiyohi Counties through 1100 AM CDT...

At 1034 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Upsala to near Atwater. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Upsala around 1040 AM CDT.
  Bowlus around 1050 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Little Falls and
Paynesville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 141 and 164.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 149 and 164.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 80 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4603 9409 4509 9444 4506 9495 4586 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 237DEG 28KT 4584 9459 4517 9486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC

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