Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
328 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

* KEY MESSAGES:

- Elevated storms over South Dakota will need to be watched for
  strong storm risk over western MN this morning.

- Severe storms expected over western MN this afternoon, gradually
  weakening as they spread east this evening. Overall severe threat
  is lower than it was Wednesday.

- Near-record highs possible today but will depend on cloud cover
  from morning storms.

A brief lull in storms early this morning is accompanied by
widespread fog over western and southern MN, some of which is locally
dense. A dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 13Z,
although increasing clouds from the west may warrant an early
cancellation for some western MN counties. Meanwhile elevated morning
convection is going strong over eastern SD at the nose of a 55-kt
850 hPa jet. High-resolution model guidance has had mixed success
resolving this activity, and is highly variable with its eventual
evolution later this morning. Some guidance such as the HRRR keeps
this activity fairly scattered and quickly lifts it north out of the
forecast area, while others suggest a more impactful convective
complex spreading east into western and central MN later this
morning. Given the tendency for morning elevated convection to
outperform model guidance at times (Weds morning for example)...will
need to keep an eye on western parts of the CWA for a potential hail
risk through the morning.

Hot and humid conditions remain on track for this afternoon with the
potential to approach record highs (90 at MSP). However this will be
highly dependent on cloud cover from the morning convection to the
west, which could especially keep temperatures down across northern
and western portions of the forecast area. Thus no heat advisories
planned at this time.

Widespread storms are then expected to fire across South Dakota and
Nebraska later this afternoon and race into Minnesota through the
late afternoon and early evening. Upper-level ascent for these storms
will be extensive and will favor rapid upgrowth into a large
convective system, possibly before they even reach the forecast area.
Strong instability and modest shear will favor supercells at the
onset, capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. This threat
looks to be maximized west of the forecast area across NE/SD. By the
time storms reach western Minnesota damaging winds should be the
main concern as they congeal into an MCS. A few very strong wind
gusts are possible over western MN given the degree of instability.
However, conditions look favorable for strong outflow/cold pools
which look likely to overcome these storms pretty quickly, and shear
profiles do not appear strong enough to keep in balance with the cold
pool structure. The result is likely to be an outflow boundary that
quickly outraces storms and leads to gradual weakening as storms
move into central and eastern MN later this evening. This weakening
trend seems supported by nearly all high-res model guidance. Thus,
do not expect the widespread severe wind event that was experienced
Wednesday evening across the Twin Cities and surrounding areas, and
expect that most severe weather this time should remain focused west
of US Highway 71.

The remainder of the forecast looks fairly quiet with quasi-zonal
upper flow settling in over the weekend and into much of next week.
Temperatures over the weekend will remain several degrees above
normal with much lower humidity values. Next week should see
temperatures returning closer to normal, highs in the mid/upper 60s,
while chances for more widespread precipitation return by Weds and
Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Thunderstorms are exiting the area with another hour or so of impacts
at EAU. Overnight should be fairly quiet with areas of fog and low
stratus developing especially north and west of MSP. Some indications
are that some showers/storms could develop over southern/central MN
as early as late morning/early afternoon Thursday, but better
consensus is that most activity should wait until a large storm
complex spreads from west to east later in the day and early evening.
This could be accompanied by high winds with the higher threats for
strong storms across western MN.

KMSP...

Some lowered visibilities possible overnight. Will need to watch for
storms developing later in the morning/early afternoon, but much
higher storm chances arrive just after 00Z. This complex of storms
could have high winds but is expected to be weakening as it
approaches MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15g25kts
becoming NW.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Swift-
     Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...DPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected across much of the area
today and tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are possible. In addition, very heavy rain and localized
flash flooding are possible, especially near and after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of widespread strong to severe storms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible,
especially across western Minnesota.

Temperatures could reach the lower 90s Thursday afternoon with
heat index values as high as 95 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed later this
afternoon through tonight and again on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     TRIMONT                 43.77N 94.71W
05/11/2022                   MARTIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TO CORRECT TORNADO REPORT PROVIDED IN SAME
            LOCATION. THE FUNNEL DID NOT MAKE CONTACT
            WITH THE GROUND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CEYLON              43.57N 94.63W
05/11/2022                   MARTIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN, INCLUDING ONE ACROSS THE
            ROAD.

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRYSTAL                 45.03N 93.36W
05/11/2022                   HENNEPIN           MN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN PER PUBLIC WORKS. LARGE TREE
            BLOCKING RESIDENTIAL STREET IN CRYSTAL, MN.
            PHOTO PROVIDED VIA TWITTER.

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADELIA                 44.05N 94.42W
05/11/2022                   WATONWAN           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN. A FEW STRUCTURES WERE
            DAMAGED, INCLUDING A BUILDING UNDER
            CONSTRUCTION THAT HAD ITS ROOF TAKEN OFF.
            WIND DAMAGE WAS ALSO NOTED 2 E MADELIA,
            WHERE POWER POLES WERE DOWNED.

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHROP                43.74N 94.44W
05/11/2022                   MARTIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1156 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             TRIMONT                 43.77N 94.71W
05/11/2022  M1.25 INCH       MARTIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM TRIMONT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1201 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

WIZ015-016-025>028-120530-
Chippewa WI-Barron WI-Dunn WI-Eau Claire WI-Rusk WI-Pepin WI-
1201 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Pepin,
Rusk, southeastern Dunn, Chippewa, southeastern Barron and Eau Claire
Counties through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Weyerhaeuser to near Elk Mound. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Weyerhaeuser around 1205 AM CDT.
  Bruce around 1210 AM CDT.
  Ladysmith around 1215 AM CDT.
  Eau Claire and Chippewa Falls around 1220 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Lake Wissota and
Cadott.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 49 and 87.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9092 4460 9092 4459 9151 4470 9192
      4553 9147 4564 9079 4564 9068 4538 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 257DEG 38KT 4546 9136 4483 9168

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1237 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

WIZ027-120545-
Chippewa WI-
1237 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Chippewa County through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cadott, or 17 miles northeast of Eau Claire, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Boyd around 1240 AM CDT.
  Stanley around 1245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9120 4506 9123 4512 9093 4505 9092
      4489 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 256DEG 48KT 4497 9113

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICE LAKE               45.50N 91.74W
05/11/2022                   BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12-18 INCH PINE TREE UPROOTED. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

TDH