Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

* KEY MESSAGES:

- Elevated storms over South Dakota will need to be watched for
  strong storm risk over western MN this morning.

- Severe storms expected over western MN this afternoon, gradually
  weakening as they spread east this evening. Overall severe threat
  is lower than it was Wednesday.

- Near-record highs possible today but will depend on cloud cover
  from morning storms.

A brief lull in storms early this morning is accompanied by
widespread fog over western and southern MN, some of which is locally
dense. A dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 13Z,
although increasing clouds from the west may warrant an early
cancellation for some western MN counties. Meanwhile elevated morning
convection is going strong over eastern SD at the nose of a 55-kt
850 hPa jet. High-resolution model guidance has had mixed success
resolving this activity, and is highly variable with its eventual
evolution later this morning. Some guidance such as the HRRR keeps
this activity fairly scattered and quickly lifts it north out of the
forecast area, while others suggest a more impactful convective
complex spreading east into western and central MN later this
morning. Given the tendency for morning elevated convection to
outperform model guidance at times (Weds morning for example)...will
need to keep an eye on western parts of the CWA for a potential hail
risk through the morning.

Hot and humid conditions remain on track for this afternoon with the
potential to approach record highs (90 at MSP). However this will be
highly dependent on cloud cover from the morning convection to the
west, which could especially keep temperatures down across northern
and western portions of the forecast area. Thus no heat advisories
planned at this time.

Widespread storms are then expected to fire across South Dakota and
Nebraska later this afternoon and race into Minnesota through the
late afternoon and early evening. Upper-level ascent for these storms
will be extensive and will favor rapid upgrowth into a large
convective system, possibly before they even reach the forecast area.
Strong instability and modest shear will favor supercells at the
onset, capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. This threat
looks to be maximized west of the forecast area across NE/SD. By the
time storms reach western Minnesota damaging winds should be the
main concern as they congeal into an MCS. A few very strong wind
gusts are possible over western MN given the degree of instability.
However, conditions look favorable for strong outflow/cold pools
which look likely to overcome these storms pretty quickly, and shear
profiles do not appear strong enough to keep in balance with the cold
pool structure. The result is likely to be an outflow boundary that
quickly outraces storms and leads to gradual weakening as storms
move into central and eastern MN later this evening. This weakening
trend seems supported by nearly all high-res model guidance. Thus,
do not expect the widespread severe wind event that was experienced
Wednesday evening across the Twin Cities and surrounding areas, and
expect that most severe weather this time should remain focused west
of US Highway 71.

The remainder of the forecast looks fairly quiet with quasi-zonal
upper flow settling in over the weekend and into much of next week.
Temperatures over the weekend will remain several degrees above
normal with much lower humidity values. Next week should see
temperatures returning closer to normal, highs in the mid/upper 60s,
while chances for more widespread precipitation return by Weds and
Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Stubborn 1/2 to 1/4 mile fog has refused to burn off so far this
morning at many of our TAF locations, but should disappear rather
quickly with more sun as well as increasing southeasterly winds.
Cloud bases will be elevated for much of the day until we begin to
see convective cumulus, with most sites seeing TSRA at some point
this afternoon and evening. The timing window of TSRA will likely
shrink with the 18z TAFs as CAMs get a better handle on how things
will evolve storm wise. Winds could gust up to 25kts main at 100-130
for much of the day.

KMSP...The main concerns are how long fog will take to dissipate this
morning, as well as the prime window for TSRA. CIGS will be mainly
VFR once the morning fog is gone, with brief MVFR/IFR possible once
TSRA arrives.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15g25kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
444 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
130945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
444 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this morning over western
Minnesota, and again this afternoon and evening across much of the
region. Large hail will be the primary threat this morning, and
damaging winds later today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ048-049-055-057-121145-
Kandiyohi MN-Stearns MN-Pope MN-Swift MN-
616 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pope,
west central Stearns, northeastern Swift and northwestern Kandiyohi
Counties through 645 AM CDT...

At 615 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Brooten, or 20 miles northwest of Willmar, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brooten around 625 AM CDT.
  Belgrade around 630 AM CDT.

This includes U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 140 and 162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9518 4542 9538 4574 9512 4551 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1115Z 219DEG 36KT 4540 9522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

DPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
717 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ043-044-049>051-121245-
Benton MN-Mille Lacs MN-Morrison MN-Sherburne MN-Stearns MN-
717 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Mille
Lacs, Benton, northwestern Sherburne, east central Stearns and
southeastern Morrison Counties through 745 AM CDT...

At 716 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sauk Rapids, or near St. Cloud, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Foley around 730 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Milaca and
Foreston.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 170 and 173.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 169 and 185.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 184 and 196.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4545 9413 4562 9429 4592 9375 4569 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 234DEG 38KT 4557 9412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
730 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ042-048-049-121300-
Stearns MN-Pope MN-Todd MN-
730 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pope,
south central Todd and northwestern Stearns Counties through 800 AM
CDT...

At 730 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brooten, or 25 miles south of Alexandria, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sauk Centre, Melrose and Grey Eagle.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 123 and 144.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 150 and 174.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9523 4558 9532 4590 9481 4556 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 234DEG 37KT 4556 9517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NDC

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