Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Twin Cities, MN

417 
WWUS53 KMPX 122341
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC067-093-145-130030-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-220513T0030Z/
Meeker MN-Stearns MN-Kandiyohi MN-
641 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MEEKER...SOUTHWESTERN STEARNS AND KANDIYOHI COUNTIES...

At 640 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Murdock to near Prinsburg to 6 miles southwest of
Olivia, moving northeast at 70 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR WILLMAR AND PAYNESVILLE.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Willmar around 650 PM CDT.
  New London, Spicer, Atwater, Brooten and Belgrade around 700 PM 
  CDT.
  Paynesville and Grove City around 710 PM CDT.
  Litchfield around 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing 
widespread wind damage across western Minnesota. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4540 9451 4489 9450 4489 9525 4491 9525
      4534 9513 4576 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 223DEG 62KT 4521 9542 4496 9514 4470 9507 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

Borghoff

108 
WWUS53 KMPX 130022
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
722 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC067-093-145-130030-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-220513T0030Z/
Meeker MN-Stearns MN-Kandiyohi MN-
722 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MEEKER...SOUTHWESTERN STEARNS AND KANDIYOHI COUNTIES...

At 722 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles south of Sauk Centre to Paynesville to near
Grove City, moving northeast at 85 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
western Meeker, southwestern Stearns and Kandiyohi Counties,
including the following locations... Willmar Airport, Spring Hill,
Blomkest, Lake Lillian, Greenwald, Green Lake, Cedar Mills,
Paynesville Airport, Litchfield Airport and Kandiyohi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing 
widespread wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure 
and stay away from windows.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and 
west central Minnesota.


&&

LAT...LON 4540 9451 4489 9450 4489 9525 4491 9525
      4534 9513 4576 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 217DEG 73KT 4562 9501 4537 9473 4511 9466 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
332 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Key Messages:

- Another round of potentially severe storms expected this
evening/tonight, although they will be weakening as they head east.

Storms have been ongoing all day in central Minnesota but are
exiting our CWA currently. A few cells have also gone up in northern
west-central Wisconsin as well which will move northeast out of the
area. A noticeable warm front is moving north through southern
Minnesota with 70s ahead of the front and some lower 90s behind it.
As a strong trough pushes north through the Dakotas, thunderstorms
are expected to break out late this afternoon in eastern South
Dakota and quickly merge into a line that will rapidly move across
the forecast area through midnight or so. With these initial storms
in a very unstable airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates, large
hail is possible but shear is not great and as the storms move east
it looks like an outflow boundary will move out ahead of the storms
as they move into central and eastern Minnesota and the storms should
weaken. The largest threat with these storms will be damaging winds
as they move east, with the biggest threat in western Minnesota with
the threat lessening to the east as the outflow boundary outruns the
storms. Wind Gusts will have the potential to reach 70 MPH or more
in western Minnesota. The outflow boundary and weakening
thunderstorms should reach the west Twin Cities metro around 9 or 10
pm, and by that point wind gusts may only be in the 40-50 MPH range.
There is still a good bit of uncertainty as to how strong the storms
will be as CAMs have been fairly consistent in rapidly weakening the
line of storms just as they reach the vicinity of the metro.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Saturday through Wednesday - The extended will be fairly quiet with
a quasi-zonal upper level flow setting up over the weekend.
Temperatures will trend cooler over the weekend but remain several
degrees above normal before turning closer to average next week. The
most significant  change will be the drier air that settles in
across the region. Model guidance has dew points in the 40s and 50s,
a far cry from the current Summer-like values. The EPS and GEFS
bring a surge of moisture towards the end of the forecast period.
This will bring our next meaningful chance for precip on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Thunderstorms in central Minnesota will continue moving off to the
northeast leaving terminals dry through the afternoon and early
evening. Another strong line of thunderstorms will move into western
Minnesota around 8 PM and head eastward, but as it does it will be
weakening. It looks like a gust front will form and race ahead of the
showers, and we will watch for this development which could bring
stronger winds across the area. After the initial stronger storms
pass there may be a few hours of -SHRA/-TSRA before we begin to clear
out. Winds will be mainly from the east ahead of a warm front moving
northward through the region, then become SE behind the front with
gusts into the 20s.

KMSP...Currently looks like the best chance for thunderstorms at the
terminal comes around 10 pm as a weakening line of storms moves
across. It is questionable how strong the storms will be at that
time, but it looks like a gust front will move out ahead of the
storms and may bring some gusty winds to around 40 MPH, but
confidence is not great. There could be a brief break in activity
after the initial storms, but then it looks like a few hours of
-shra/-tsra coming in behind.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15g25kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
SHORT TERM...CEO
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...CEO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely late this afternoon through
this evening, starting in southwestern Minnesota then spreading
northeast across much of central and eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Severe weather potential is highest in western and central
Minnesota then diminishing going eastward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FALCON HEIGHTS          44.99N 93.18W
05/11/2022                   RAMSEY             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAST NIGHTS STORMS CAUSED EXTENSIVE TREE
            DAMAGE, WITH SEVERAL TREES (AT LEAST)
            SNAPPED, AND THE LARGEST TREE ON CAMPUS
            UPROOTED--A 100+ YEAR-OLD HACKBERRY WITH A
            4-FOOT DIAMETER TRUNK. LOTS OF LIMB DAMAGE
            TOO. THE FALCON HEIGHTS HENNEPIN WEST
            MESONET SITE IS ABOUT .25 MILES FROM THE
            DAMAGE AND HAD A 59 MPH GUST.

&&

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             BRUCE                   45.46N 91.27W
05/12/2022  M1.00 INCH       RUSK               WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             WEYERHAEUSER            45.43N 91.41W
05/12/2022  E1.25 INCH       RUSK               WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     CANBY                   44.71N 96.27W
05/12/2022  M66 MPH          YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   AWOS

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE MADISON           44.99N 96.18W
05/12/2022  M94 MPH          LAC QUI PARLE      MN   AWOS

            MEASURED AT MADISON AIRPORT AWOS.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE MILAN             45.07N 95.87W
05/12/2022                   CHIPPEWA           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN 5 MILES NW OF
            WATSON.

&&

MKM