Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Twin Cities, MN

869 
WWUS53 KMPX 120210
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
910 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC047-120245-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-220512T0245Z/
Freeborn MN-
910 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FREEBORN COUNTY...

At 910 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Freeborn, or 15
miles northwest of Albert Lea, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Hartland, Clarks Grove and Geneva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south
central Minnesota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9325 4370 9329 4362 9364 4384 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 244DEG 21KT 4379 9360 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

281 
WWUS53 KMPX 120221
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
921 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC047-120230-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-220512T0245Z/
Freeborn MN-
921 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FREEBORN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and 
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south
central Minnesota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Northwest Freeborn County.

LAT...LON 4385 9325 4370 9329 4362 9364 4384 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 267DEG 29KT 4379 9348 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Updated for 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Conditions still favorable for severe thunderstorms, including
  supercells with large hail and tornadoes, through this evening.

- Heavy rain/flooding still possible through tonight, particularly
  with storms that track over the same locations.

- Additional severe thunderstorms likely Thursday, with all modes of
  severe weather possible.

- Cooler and drier as we trend back to normal temperatures over the
  weekend into early next week.

Tonight through Thursday Night...An active next 24-36 hours is
expected across all of central-southern MN into western WI as Upper
Midwest becomes warm-sectored with steep lapse rates, dewpoints into
the lower 70s, and strong mid-to-upper level jetting in advance of a
cold front. A warm front is making northward progress over southern
MN, helping increase instability over far southern portions of the
coverage area. Even without the instability, multiple strong-to-
severe storms developed earlier today with much lower dewpoints due
to the steep lapse rates producing severe hail with lower cores.
Going through the afternoon hours into this evening, the warm front
will continue to lift north, reaching central MN, allowing the lower
70s dewpoints to continue punching north. Initial discrete cells are
expected to develop into a organized line that will curl NE and E as
they evolve from southwest MN. Bulk shear of 50-60kt within said
instability will certainly be able to contribute to supercell
development. All modes of severe weather will be at play through this
evening, including hail up to 2" in diameter and a few tornadoes.

Even with the loss of daytime heating, PWATs upwards of 1.50" will
contribute to storms producing excessive rainfall as plenty of low
level moisture is advected into the region. As the storm motions
become more parallel to the warm front, this may create training of
storms over the same locations. This scenario may produce localized
flooding during the evening to early morning hours. This is reflected
in the increased QPF in collaboration with WPC earlier today.

Attention then turns to Thursday as another day of severe
thunderstorms looks likely within an even higher instability
environment. Temperatures will surge into the lower 90s with
dewpoints into the upper 60s to around 70. While this does fall short
of Heat Advisory criteria, heat index values into the lower 90s with
WBGT values into the lower 80s will be commonplace on Thursday. After
a lull in the activity Thursday morning, capping will be lost
Thursday afternoon-evening with better wind fields supportive of
storms producing large hails and a few tornadoes, especially early on
in Thursday's event. Going later, more organized segments may well
have potential for damaging winds. The activity will gradually
diminish going into the late Thursday evening hours to the early
morning Friday timeframe.

Friday through Tuesday...The upper trough and 500 mb low will be
moving out of North Dakota into Canada with an arcing cold front
extending from the attendant surface low through the eastern CWA.
There could be lingering showers near the front early, but a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon/evening, but by that time they may be too far to the east
to affect our Wisconsin areas. The upper trough/low then slows and
meanders eastward keeping us under the influence of the trough into
Monday with small chances for precipitation each afternoon. Ridging
then builds in from the west behind the departing system, but it
looks like a subtle short wave trough brings another chance for
around midweek. Temperatures cool down through the period, with highs
around 80 for MSP on Friday falling to closer to 70 later in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

An area of strong thunderstorms will impact the area this evening
through tonight. IFR cigs/vis expected with heavy rain, but otherwise
mainly MVFR. Areas of fog may develop late tonight with VFR
conditions returning by tomorrow morning. Another round of storms is
expected tomorrow evening, but feel the greatest threat lies just
outside the TAF period.

KMSP...Storms expected to impact KMSP within the next hour and
continue through 05-06z. Strongest storms are expected from 00z-
03z. Added a PROB30 for the storms tomorrow evening as the threat
looks fairly conditional.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15g25kts
becoming NW.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...CEO/JPC
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected across much of the area
today and tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are possible. In addition, very heavy rain and localized
flash flooding are possible, especially near and after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of widespread strong to severe storms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible,
especially across western Minnesota.

Temperatures could reach the lower 90s Thursday afternoon with
heat index values as high as 95 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed later this
afternoon through tonight and again on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOPKINS                 44.92N 93.41W
05/11/2022  M64 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
825 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             3 SSE LAKEVILLE         44.65N 93.22W
05/11/2022  M1.25 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
826 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE RICHFIELD         44.90N 93.23W
05/11/2022  M61 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   ASOS

            MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
827 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW HUTCHINSON         44.88N 94.39W
05/11/2022                   MCLEOD             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            12-14 INCH TREE SNAPPED AT TRUNK DALE ST.
            AND S. GRADE RD. SW.

&&

CCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
832 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE BROOKLYN PARK     45.10N 93.34W
05/11/2022                   HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BRANCES DOWN.

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
834 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAYLORD                 44.56N 94.22W
05/11/2022                   SIBLEY             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            10 TREE SNAPPED ONTO POWER LINE, POWER OUT.

&&

CCS