Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Twin Cities, MN

033 
WWUS53 KMPX 120200
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
900 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC003-123-120210-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-220512T0215Z/
Anoka MN-Ramsey MN-
900 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ANOKA AND RAMSEY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for east central
Minnesota...and northwestern and west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4537 9268 4529 9276 4521 9275 4519 9277
      4517 9275 4511 9274 4507 9280 4494 9275
      4475 9281 4477 9288 4478 9300 4512 9298
      4513 9302 4542 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 229DEG 44KT 4535 9280 

$$

MNC025-163-120215-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-220512T0215Z/
Chisago MN-Washington MN-
900 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 900 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Center City, or
24 miles southeast of Cambridge, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Chisago and Washington Counties, including the following
locations... Otisville, Grant, Afton State Park, Lake St Croix Beach,
Wyoming, Willernie, Lakeland Shores, St Paul Park, William OBrien
State Park and St Marys Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for east central
Minnesota...and northwestern and west central Wisconsin.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9268 4529 9276 4521 9275 4519 9277
      4517 9275 4511 9274 4507 9280 4494 9275
      4475 9281 4477 9288 4478 9300 4512 9298
      4513 9302 4542 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 229DEG 44KT 4535 9280 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Updated for 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Conditions still favorable for severe thunderstorms, including
  supercells with large hail and tornadoes, through this evening.

- Heavy rain/flooding still possible through tonight, particularly
  with storms that track over the same locations.

- Additional severe thunderstorms likely Thursday, with all modes of
  severe weather possible.

- Cooler and drier as we trend back to normal temperatures over the
  weekend into early next week.

Tonight through Thursday Night...An active next 24-36 hours is
expected across all of central-southern MN into western WI as Upper
Midwest becomes warm-sectored with steep lapse rates, dewpoints into
the lower 70s, and strong mid-to-upper level jetting in advance of a
cold front. A warm front is making northward progress over southern
MN, helping increase instability over far southern portions of the
coverage area. Even without the instability, multiple strong-to-
severe storms developed earlier today with much lower dewpoints due
to the steep lapse rates producing severe hail with lower cores.
Going through the afternoon hours into this evening, the warm front
will continue to lift north, reaching central MN, allowing the lower
70s dewpoints to continue punching north. Initial discrete cells are
expected to develop into a organized line that will curl NE and E as
they evolve from southwest MN. Bulk shear of 50-60kt within said
instability will certainly be able to contribute to supercell
development. All modes of severe weather will be at play through this
evening, including hail up to 2" in diameter and a few tornadoes.

Even with the loss of daytime heating, PWATs upwards of 1.50" will
contribute to storms producing excessive rainfall as plenty of low
level moisture is advected into the region. As the storm motions
become more parallel to the warm front, this may create training of
storms over the same locations. This scenario may produce localized
flooding during the evening to early morning hours. This is reflected
in the increased QPF in collaboration with WPC earlier today.

Attention then turns to Thursday as another day of severe
thunderstorms looks likely within an even higher instability
environment. Temperatures will surge into the lower 90s with
dewpoints into the upper 60s to around 70. While this does fall short
of Heat Advisory criteria, heat index values into the lower 90s with
WBGT values into the lower 80s will be commonplace on Thursday. After
a lull in the activity Thursday morning, capping will be lost
Thursday afternoon-evening with better wind fields supportive of
storms producing large hails and a few tornadoes, especially early on
in Thursday's event. Going later, more organized segments may well
have potential for damaging winds. The activity will gradually
diminish going into the late Thursday evening hours to the early
morning Friday timeframe.

Friday through Tuesday...The upper trough and 500 mb low will be
moving out of North Dakota into Canada with an arcing cold front
extending from the attendant surface low through the eastern CWA.
There could be lingering showers near the front early, but a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon/evening, but by that time they may be too far to the east
to affect our Wisconsin areas. The upper trough/low then slows and
meanders eastward keeping us under the influence of the trough into
Monday with small chances for precipitation each afternoon. Ridging
then builds in from the west behind the departing system, but it
looks like a subtle short wave trough brings another chance for
around midweek. Temperatures cool down through the period, with highs
around 80 for MSP on Friday falling to closer to 70 later in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

An area of strong thunderstorms will impact the area this evening
through tonight. IFR cigs/vis expected with heavy rain, but otherwise
mainly MVFR. Areas of fog may develop late tonight with VFR
conditions returning by tomorrow morning. Another round of storms is
expected tomorrow evening, but feel the greatest threat lies just
outside the TAF period.

KMSP...Storms expected to impact KMSP within the next hour and
continue through 05-06z. Strongest storms are expected from 00z-
03z. Added a PROB30 for the storms tomorrow evening as the threat
looks fairly conditional.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15g25kts
becoming NW.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...CEO/JPC
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected across much of the area
today and tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are possible. In addition, very heavy rain and localized
flash flooding are possible, especially near and after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of widespread strong to severe storms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible,
especially across western Minnesota.

Temperatures could reach the lower 90s Thursday afternoon with
heat index values as high as 95 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed later this
afternoon through tonight and again on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
742 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TORNADO          TRIMONT                 43.77N 94.71W
05/11/2022  EF1              MARTIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED ROTATION
            NEAR CO RD 39 AND CO RD 44. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
802 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW MORRISTOWN        44.24N 93.45W
05/11/2022  M79 MPH          RICE               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 13 AND CO RD 7.

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
806 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E MANKATO             44.17N 93.94W
05/11/2022  E53 MPH          BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATE BY RADAR.

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
807 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW SHAKOPEE          44.80N 93.55W
05/11/2022  M77 MPH          CARVER             MN   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT HOME ASOS STATION.

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
809 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE SHAKOPEE          44.77N 93.50W
05/11/2022  E58 MPH          SCOTT              MN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. REPORT BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

&&

RMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
810 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANBORN                 44.21N 95.14W
05/11/2022                   REDWOOD            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHED AND POWER LINES DOWN ON WEST SIDE OF
            SANBORN.

&&