Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490

September 7, 202113 counties in Indiana; 30 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 7, 2021, 3:20 PM EDT for 13 counties in Indiana; 30 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 7, 2021, 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC)
Expired
Sep 7, 2021, 10:15 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 43 counties

Cass County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, White County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 3:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXHuron66 min
Sep 7, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRClinton, Gratiot, Ionia64 min
Sep 7, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXBay, Midland, Saginaw75 min
Sep 7, 3:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXTuscola82 min
Sep 7, 4:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatIWXBerrien27 min
Sep 7, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRVan Buren55 min
Sep 7, 4:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningIWXBerrien, Cass, Saint Joseph48 min
Sep 7, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXSaginaw31 min
Sep 7, 4:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRAllegan, Barry, Kalamazoo42 min
Sep 7, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRBarry, Calhoun, Eaton47 min
Sep 7, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningIWXBranch, Saint Joseph19 min
Sep 7, 5:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRIngham, Jackson50 min
Sep 7, 5:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXLivingston, Shiawassee80 min
Sep 7, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRClinton29 min
Sep 7, 7:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXShiawassee17 min
Sep 7, 7:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningIWXHillsdale29 min
Sep 7, 7:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXLenawee33 min
Sep 7, 8:56 PM EDTTornado WarningDTXMonroe26 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2021-09-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2021-09-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 150 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1621 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

188 
WWUS20 KWNS 071919
SEL0  
SPC WW 071919
INZ000-MIZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-080300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Indiana
  Southern Lower Michigan
  Lake Erie
  Lake Huron
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon as they spread eastward across the watch area.  Damaging
winds and hail are the main threats, although there is some risk of
a tornado or two as winds aloft strengthen this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Benton Harbor MI to 40 miles north northeast of Mount Clemens MI.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488...WW 489...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 2:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter8 hr
Sep 7, 2:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte and 6 more117 min
Sep 7, 5:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCElkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte, Marshall and 5 more83 min
Sep 7, 6:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Cass, Miami, Tippecanoe, Warren and 1 more95 min
Sep 7, 3:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Ontonagon3 hr
Sep 7, 8:05 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and 1 more115 min
Sep 7, 10:15 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Lake and 10 more90 min
Sep 7, 11:47 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClare, Gladwin, Isabella, Lake, Manistee, Mason and 10 more58 min
Sep 7, 12:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcona, Arenac, Bay, Clare, Crawford, Gladwin and 20 more6 hr
Sep 7, 1:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo and 2 more86 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Indiana, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.