Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488

September 7, 202126 counties in Michigan; 14 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 7, 2021, 12:21 PM EDT for 26 counties in Michigan; 14 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 7, 2021, 12:21 PM EDT (16:21 UTC)
Expired
Sep 7, 2021, 6:47 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 40 counties

Alcona County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 12:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMason65 min
Sep 7, 12:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMilwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha48 min
Sep 7, 12:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXMissaukee, Roscommon, Wexford47 min
Sep 7, 12:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRLake, Osceola58 min
Sep 7, 12:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXRock, Walworth48 min
Sep 7, 12:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXJefferson, Milwaukee, Waukesha60 min
Sep 7, 12:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRROceana66 min
Sep 7, 1:08 PM EDTTornado WarningGRRClare, Osceola40 min
Sep 7, 1:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXIosco16 min
Sep 7, 1:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRLake, Newaygo37 min
Sep 7, 1:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXRacine, Walworth40 min
Sep 7, 1:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXWexford19 min
Sep 7, 1:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Racine, Rock, Walworth60 min
Sep 7, 1:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXMissaukee, Roscommon29 min
Sep 7, 1:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAlcona, Alpena, Iosco38 min
Sep 7, 1:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatGRROsceola38 min
Sep 7, 1:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXIosco, Ogemaw58 min
Sep 7, 1:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMuskegon, Oceana54 min
Sep 7, 2:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRClare46 min
Sep 7, 2:13 PM EDTTornado WarningGRRClare30 min
Sep 7, 2:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRIsabella, Mecosta, Newaygo55 min
Sep 7, 2:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXArenac, Gladwin, Iosco, Ogemaw53 min
Sep 7, 2:23 PM EDTTornado WarningGRRIsabella21 min
Sep 7, 2:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRKent, Ottawa39 min
Sep 7, 2:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXBay, Midland66 min
Sep 7, 3:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMontcalm56 min
Sep 7, 3:07 PM EDTTornado WarningDTXBay, Midland31 min
Sep 7, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRClinton, Gratiot, Ionia64 min
Sep 7, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXBay, Midland, Saginaw75 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-09-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 14 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-09-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -120 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-216 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1012 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-120 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

435 
WWUS20 KWNS 071618
SEL8  
SPC WW 071618
MIZ000-WIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-072300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Lower Michigan
  Southeast Wisconsin
  Lake Huron
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1120 AM until
  600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will sag southward across the
watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind
gusts and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Janesville WI to 60 miles east of Houghton Lake MI. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24040.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 3:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Ontonagon3 hr
Sep 7, 8:05 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and 1 more115 min
Sep 7, 10:15 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Lake and 10 more90 min
Sep 7, 11:47 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClare, Gladwin, Isabella, Lake, Manistee, Mason and 10 more58 min
Sep 7, 1:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo and 2 more86 min
Sep 7, 2:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Eaton, Genesee and 14 more117 min
Sep 7, 3:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 24 more7 hr
Sep 7, 5:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 23 more83 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.