Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 7, 2021, 12:21 PM EDT for 26 counties in Michigan; 14 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 7, 2021, 12:21 PM EDT (16:21 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 7, 2021, 6:47 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 40 counties
Alcona County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 12:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Mason | 65 min |
| Sep 7, 12:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha | 48 min |
| Sep 7, 12:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Missaukee, Roscommon, Wexford | 47 min |
| Sep 7, 12:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Lake, Osceola | 58 min |
| Sep 7, 12:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Rock, Walworth | 48 min |
| Sep 7, 12:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Jefferson, Milwaukee, Waukesha | 60 min |
| Sep 7, 12:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Oceana | 66 min |
| Sep 7, 1:08 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GRR | Clare, Osceola | 40 min |
| Sep 7, 1:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Iosco | 16 min |
| Sep 7, 1:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Lake, Newaygo | 37 min |
| Sep 7, 1:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Racine, Walworth | 40 min |
| Sep 7, 1:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Wexford | 19 min |
| Sep 7, 1:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Racine, Rock, Walworth | 60 min |
| Sep 7, 1:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Missaukee, Roscommon | 29 min |
| Sep 7, 1:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Alpena, Iosco | 38 min |
| Sep 7, 1:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Osceola | 38 min |
| Sep 7, 1:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Iosco, Ogemaw | 58 min |
| Sep 7, 1:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Muskegon, Oceana | 54 min |
| Sep 7, 2:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Clare | 46 min |
| Sep 7, 2:13 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GRR | Clare | 30 min |
| Sep 7, 2:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Isabella, Mecosta, Newaygo | 55 min |
| Sep 7, 2:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac, Gladwin, Iosco, Ogemaw | 53 min |
| Sep 7, 2:23 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GRR | Isabella | 21 min |
| Sep 7, 2:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Kent, Ottawa | 39 min |
| Sep 7, 2:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland | 66 min |
| Sep 7, 3:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Montcalm | 56 min |
| Sep 7, 3:07 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland | 31 min |
| Sep 7, 3:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Clinton, Gratiot, Ionia | 64 min |
| Sep 7, 3:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland, Saginaw | 75 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -216 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1012 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -120 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.1
The text
As transmitted.
435
WWUS20 KWNS 071618
SEL8
SPC WW 071618
MIZ000-WIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-072300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Lower Michigan
Southeast Wisconsin
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1120 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will sag southward across the
watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind
gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Janesville WI to 60 miles east of Houghton Lake MI. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...HartSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 3:40 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Ontonagon | 3 hr |
| Sep 7, 8:05 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and 1 more | 115 min |
| Sep 7, 10:15 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antrim, Benzie, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Lake and 10 more | 90 min |
| Sep 7, 11:47 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clare, Gladwin, Isabella, Lake, Manistee, Mason and 10 more | 58 min |
| Sep 7, 1:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo and 2 more | 86 min |
| Sep 7, 2:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Eaton, Genesee and 14 more | 117 min |
| Sep 7, 3:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 24 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 7, 5:37 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 23 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.