Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1709

September 7, 202111 counties in Indiana; 29 counties in Michigan; Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 7, 2021, 5:37 PM EDT for 11 counties in Indiana; 29 counties in Michigan; Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 7, 2021, 5:37 PM EDT (21:37 UTC)
Expired
Sep 7, 2021, 7:00 PM EDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 490
All 42 counties

Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Fulton County, OH, Williams County, OH

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2021-09-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2021-09-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 150 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1621 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

341 
ACUS11 KWNS 072138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072137 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

Areas affected...Portions of Lower Michigan into far northern
Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490...

Valid 072137Z - 072300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of Lower
Michigan and far northern Indiana. Damaging gusts will be the
primary threat, though occasional large hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storm clusters have gradually morphed
into short linear segments across portions of Lower Michigan over
the past few hours. Severe winds have recently been reported with a
few of the stronger storms, including 60 kts measured at Kalamazoo
and 57 kts at Battle Creek Executive Airport. While modest buoyancy
remains in place (i.e. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), ample deep-layer ascent
and vertical shear are present, with 21Z mesoanalysis showing 50+
kts of effective bulk shear. As such, damaging gusts should remain
possible through the late afternoon hours, with an occasional bout
of severe hail also possible.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   41758701 42458625 43168522 43488428 43688350 43748300
            43558266 42948264 42378286 41938316 41658356 41548443
            41348526 41188573 41058614 40998650 40958688 41758701

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 2:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter8 hr
Sep 7, 2:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte and 6 more117 min
Sep 7, 3:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCass, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte and 7 more7 hr
Sep 7, 6:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Cass, Miami, Tippecanoe, Warren and 1 more95 min
Sep 7, 3:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Ontonagon3 hr
Sep 7, 8:05 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and 1 more115 min
Sep 7, 10:15 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Lake and 10 more90 min
Sep 7, 11:47 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClare, Gladwin, Isabella, Lake, Manistee, Mason and 10 more58 min
Sep 7, 12:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcona, Arenac, Bay, Clare, Crawford, Gladwin and 20 more6 hr
Sep 7, 1:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo and 2 more86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.