Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344

July 7, 20216 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 7, 2021, 2:41 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2021, 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC)
Expired
Jul 8, 2021, 1:00 AM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 86 counties

Capitol Planning Region, CT, Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

52 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 7, 2:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer32 min
Jul 7, 3:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYBerkshire13 min
Jul 7, 3:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia, Greene31 min
Jul 7, 3:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYBerkshire67 min
Jul 7, 4:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region60 min
Jul 7, 4:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYBerkshire15 min
Jul 7, 4:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXFranklin, Hampshire59 min
Jul 7, 4:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region59 min
Jul 7, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXEssex, Middlesex57 min
Jul 7, 4:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region31 min
Jul 7, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region55 min
Jul 7, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware, Otsego47 min
Jul 7, 5:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXHampden, Hampshire, Worcester54 min
Jul 7, 5:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region49 min
Jul 7, 5:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region60 min
Jul 7, 5:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware20 min
Jul 7, 5:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYSchoharie48 min
Jul 7, 5:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region47 min
Jul 7, 5:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango40 min
Jul 7, 6:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Tioga, Tompkins45 min
Jul 7, 6:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Rensselaer39 min
Jul 7, 6:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Otsego50 min
Jul 7, 6:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXNortheastern Connecticut Planning Region58 min
Jul 7, 6:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXMiddlesex, Worcester36 min
Jul 7, 6:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Schoharie54 min
Jul 7, 6:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Steuben44 min
Jul 7, 6:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Schoharie70 min
Jul 7, 6:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region43 min
Jul 7, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYBerkshire27 min
Jul 7, 6:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXBristol, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk61 min
Jul 7, 7:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOtsego33 min
Jul 7, 7:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region51 min
Jul 7, 7:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClinton, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Union44 min
Jul 7, 7:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXNorfolk, Plymouth25 min
Jul 7, 8:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPTioga56 min
Jul 7, 8:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Steuben38 min
Jul 7, 8:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Sullivan, Tioga48 min
Jul 7, 8:21 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMSteuben2 hr
Jul 7, 8:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPTioga39 min
Jul 7, 8:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region67 min
Jul 7, 8:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region35 min
Jul 7, 8:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Steuben, Tioga67 min
Jul 7, 8:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Sullivan28 min
Jul 7, 8:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford, Luzerne, Susquehanna, Wyoming40 min
Jul 7, 9:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Tioga66 min
Jul 7, 10:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Tioga54 min
Jul 7, 10:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware, Sullivan76 min
Jul 7, 10:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Delaware, Otsego64 min
Jul 7, 11:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster58 min
Jul 7, 11:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Herkimer, Montgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie55 min
Jul 8, 12:00 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer, Schoharie and 1 more60 min
Jul 8, 12:01 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region59 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 568 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 79 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
568 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-83 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
901 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

850 
WWUS20 KWNS 071837
SEL4  
SPC WW 071837
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-RIZ000-CWZ000-080300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Connecticut
  Massachusetts
  Northern and central New Jersey
  Southern New York
  Eastern Pennsylvania
  Rhode Island
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM
  until 1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify near
a front across southern New York into southern New England as well
as within a hot/unstable air mass to the south across other parts of
the region. Storms are likely to linearly organize through late
afternoon/early evening as they spread east-southeastward,
potentially impacting larger population areas including Boston/New
York City.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southeast of
Boston MA to 20 miles west of Williamsport PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 7, 1:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC115 min
Jul 7, 4:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC87 min
Jul 7, 7:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
Jul 7, 3:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua7 hr
Jul 7, 1:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCrawford, Erie7 hr
Jul 7, 3:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Erie91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.