Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Binghamton, NY

962 
WWUS51 KBGM 080326
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1126 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYC017-080335-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-210708T0345Z/
Chenango NY-
1126 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4221 7453 4217 7446 4215 7450 4215 7453
      4212 7456 4204 7474 4204 7500 4267 7526
      4280 7466 4276 7467 4263 7463 4252 7471
      4242 7461 4235 7443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 259DEG 39KT 4266 7509 4216 7459 

$$

NYC025-077-080345-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-210708T0345Z/
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-
1126 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL OTSEGO AND CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES...

At 1125 PM EDT, Severe thuhnderstorms were located along a line 
extending from Hartwick to Arkville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE... Reports of downed trees and wires with these storms. 

 IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Oneonta, Delhi, Davenport, Roxbury, Worcester, Middlefield, Hartwick,
Maryland, Cooperstown and Westville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 7453 4217 7446 4215 7450 4215 7453
      4212 7456 4204 7474 4204 7500 4267 7526
      4280 7466 4276 7467 4263 7463 4252 7471
      4242 7461 4235 7443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 259DEG 39KT 4266 7509 4216 7459 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MWG

107 
WWUS51 KBGM 080344
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1144 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYC025-077-080353-
/O.EXP.KBGM.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-210708T0345Z/
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-
1144 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OTSEGO AND CENTRAL
DELAWARE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning will move out of the area 
shortly. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
central New York.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Binghamton.

LAT...LON 4221 7453 4217 7446 4215 7450 4215 7453
      4212 7456 4204 7474 4204 7500 4267 7526
      4280 7466 4276 7467 4263 7463 4252 7471
      4242 7461 4235 7443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 259DEG 39KT 4269 7485 4219 7435 

$$

MWG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1031 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A Great Lakes storm system will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the week. A brief dry period
is possible Saturday, though another chance of showers and
thunderstorms is possible on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM Update:

Made some adjustments to PoPs, but otherwise forecast remains on
track. An intense line of thunderstorms continues to move
through the Twin Tiers with elevated DCAPE values allowing for
strong downdrafts. Widespread tree damage has been reported with
these storms. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
hours.

655 PM Update:

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 11PM this
evening for portions of the area (southern Finger Lakes region
southward through Northeast PA).

As expected, scattered thunderstorms have developed along a
stationary frontal boundary located across the Southern Tier of
NY/southern Finger Lakes. Some of these have reached severe
strength, producing locally damaging winds. These storms will
slowly drift southeastward this evening. Meanwhile, another
batch of showers and thunderstorms is located across Central PA
and moving northeastward towards Northeast PA. These two batches
will likely converge, continuing the thunderstorm threat
through the evening. Instability will wane by the late evening,
therefore ending the severe weather threat by 11PM.

With this update, made minor adjustments to PoPs to reflect
latest radar trends. Also added in mention of damaging winds and
frequent lightning this evening for the areas located in the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track and the previous discussion remains valid.

Previous Discussion:

The environment still looks favorable for some scattered,
strong thunderstorms through this evening. In areas across the
southern Finger Lakes and Susquehanna Regions and southward
across NEPA, CAPE values exceed 1500 J/kg with 0-6km Bulk Shear
values of 25-30 kts. While there have been one or two isolated
storms to pop up, hi-res models suggest a later event, mainly
this evening through tonight. Later tonight, the environment
does begin to stabilize, which would limit the severe threat.
However, there does appear that there will be enough instability
to support some scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially
across CNY.

A trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to our region overnight.
This will advect tropical moisture from Elsa into the area
supporting another round of rain showers Thursday morning. Some
model guidance does suggest the potential for some thunderstorms as
well, but confidence is too low to include thunder during the
morning hours when the environment will be more stable.

Temperatures this afternoon are in the 80s and low 90s after clearer
skies and no thunderstorm activity allowed us get closer to our
forecasted highs today. Overnight lows will remain mild as temps
will only fall into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will move into western NY by midday Thursday,
leading to increasing shower coverage through the late morning
hours. Heavier precip will be focused east of I-81 in the
afternoon, especially as a low level jet noses into the Poconos
and Catskills. Models/Ensembles still have considerable
uncertainty over a possible "predecessor-event" band setting up
over NE PA and eastern NY. this would be associated with a
combination of strong low/mid level moisture advection from the
LLJ and enhanced upper level diffluence being in the right
entrance region of a jet streak over eastern ON/western QC and
the left exit region of more subtle 50-60 knot jet streak over
eastern PA into far SE NY. Some models focus the heavier precip
with this feature over the Adirondacks, while others stretch it
further back into NE PA.

Thu AM-Thu PM precip amounts of 1-2 inches (lower end) or 2-3
inches (higher end scenario) over the far eastern CWA by
themselves wouldn't be too troublesome. Flash flood risk will
mainly depend on cumulative antecedent conditions. Essentially,
those areas that are hard hit by locally heavy rainfall this
(Wed) evening, will be far more susceptible for flooding
Thursday afternoon/evening. For this reason, we decided to hold
off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch until the most susceptible
areas can be assessed later tonight.

There's still a small chance that Elsa could continue to trend
further to the west, bringing the western fringes of the deeper
tropical moisture (i.e., PWAT >2.2 inches) into the
Cats/Poconos Thursday Night or Friday morning, but at this point
it looks like it'll remain just to our east. Otherwise,
lingering rain showers will diminish west to east through
Friday, with a few additional pop-up showers or thunderstorms
out west later in the afternoon.

Saturday looks to be dry (at last!) with temperatures mainly in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Continued unsettled weather is expected during the long term
period with multiple chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A large upper level ridge will be building off the Mid-Atlantic
coast and a moist southerly flow will develop across Central NY
and Northeast PA. Multiple disturbances are expected to ride
along the top of the ridge, leading to daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Continued to go close to
NBM for PoPs, but just eliminated any mention of likely PoPs
being this far out in the forecast period.

A gradual warming trend is expected during the long term. Highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected Sunday and Monday.
Then highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While most terminals are VFR as of the 00Z TAF issuance, this
will be rather short lived. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move through the area and possibly impact all
terminals this evening, especially KELM, KBGM, and KAVP.
Included two hour TEMPO groups for the time period where
thunderstorms are most likely at these terminals. That being
said, amendments are possible to further fine-tune the threat
for thunderstorms.

Behind the main batch of showers and thunderstorms, patchy fog
and/or lower ceilings are expected. IFR conditions are expected
at most terminals late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
through the area on Thursday, especially during the afternoon.
Right now, confidence for thunder is only high enough to include
in the TAFs at KAVP and KBGM for the very end of the TAF period.
This will be fine-tuned in the upcoming TAF issuances.

Outlook...

Thursday evening through Friday...Additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible with associated intermittent
restrictions, especially Thursday evening.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; small chance of a
shower/brief restriction.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR; chance for
showers/thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-082045-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-
Southern Oneida-
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An eastward moving storm system will interact with moisture partly
from the remnants of Elsa. Rain showers and thunderstorms will
increase on Thursday and Thursday night, and a few heavier showers
could lead to localized flooding, though this risk will be higher
further to the east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ022>025-044-055-PAZ038-082045-
Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Cortland-Tioga-Bradford-
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An eastward moving storm system will interact with moisture partly
from the remnants of Elsa. Rain showers and thunderstorms will
increase on Thursday and Thursday night, and a few heavier showers
could lead to localized flooding, though this risk will be higher
over areas east of I-81.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-082045-
Chenango-Otsego-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An eastward moving storm system will interact with moisture from the
remnants of Elsa. Rain showers and thunderstorms could become heavy
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with localized flooding
possible, especially in areas which have received heavy rainfall in
recent days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ057-PAZ040-080230-
Delaware-Northern Wayne-
957 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 957 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Shehawken, or
17 miles south of Deposit, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hancock, Starrucca, Hiawatha, Shehawken, Starlight, Equinunk,
Peabrook, Fishs Eddy, Orson and Lake Como.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

LAT...LON 4186 7514 4185 7514 4184 7513 4174 7539
      4181 7547 4185 7548 4204 7522 4189 7507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 232DEG 24KT 4181 7539

MWG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1005 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OWEGO                   42.10N 76.26W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON VEHICLE. OTHER TREES AND WIRES
            DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1011 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BIRCHARDVILLE      41.88N 75.97W
07/07/2021                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON COLE ROAD.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1017 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW VESTAL             42.06N 76.08W
07/07/2021                   BROOME             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ECHO ROAD.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1038 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 PM     HAIL             1 W ENDICOTT            42.10N 76.08W
07/07/2021  U1.00 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE PORT CRANE         42.18N 75.82W
07/07/2021                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&