Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Binghamton, NY

652 
WWUS51 KBGM 080225
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1025 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYC107-PAC069-080233-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-210708T0300Z/
Tioga NY-Lackawanna PA-
1025 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TIOGA AND NORTH
CENTRAL LACKAWANNA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central New York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4166 7544 4234 7603 4241 7596 4241 7587
      4245 7586 4262 7539 4202 7485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 238DEG 40KT 4238 7593 4175 7540 

$$

NYC007-017-025-077-PAC115-127-080300-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-210708T0300Z/
Otsego NY-Broome NY-Delaware NY-Chenango NY-Susquehanna PA-Wayne PA-
1025 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO...CENTRAL BROOME...WESTERN DELAWARE...
SOUTHERN CHENANGO...NORTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTHWESTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 1023 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Whitney Point to Pleasant Mount, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. The highest winds 
         will be with a dangerous microburst across northeastern 
         Broome and southern Chenango counties. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement has reported numerous trees and wires down. 
         Widespread power outages in Broome county from the 
         microburst. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Norwich, Sidney, Walton, Guilford, Sanford, Colchester, Susquehanna,
Deposit, Coventry and Susquehanna Depot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Binghamton.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 7544 4234 7603 4241 7596 4241 7587
      4245 7586 4262 7539 4202 7485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 238DEG 40KT 4238 7593 4175 7540 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MWG

225 
WWUS51 KBGM 080254
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1054 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYC007-PAC115-127-080303-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-210708T0300Z/
Broome NY-Susquehanna PA-Wayne PA-
1054 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BROOME...NORTHEASTERN
SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. Numerous trees and 
wires are downed with power outages. Allow extra caution if 
traveling overnight in these areas. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
central New York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4202 7485 4185 7516 4212 7542 4219 7542
      4220 7550 4239 7569 4241 7577 4245 7582
      4262 7539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 238DEG 40KT 4254 7558 4191 7505 

$$

NYC017-025-077-080300-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-210708T0300Z/
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-Chenango NY-
1054 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO...WESTERN DELAWARE AND CENTRAL CHENANGO
COUNTIES...

At 1053 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Norwich to near Peabrook, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Norwich, Sidney, Walton, Guilford, Colchester, Oxford, Bainbridge,
Masonville, Unadilla and Preston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Binghamton.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4202 7485 4185 7516 4212 7542 4219 7542
      4220 7550 4239 7569 4241 7577 4245 7582
      4262 7539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 238DEG 40KT 4254 7558 4191 7505 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MWG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A Great Lakes storm system will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the week. A brief dry period
is possible Saturday, though another chance of showers and
thunderstorms is possible on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
655 PM Update:

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 11PM this
evening for portions of the area (southern Finger Lakes region
southward through Northeast PA).

As expected, scattered thunderstorms have developed along a
stationary frontal boundary located across the Southern Tier of
NY/southern Finger Lakes. Some of these have reached severe
strength, producing locally damaging winds. These storms will
slowly drift southeastward this evening. Meanwhile, another
batch of showers and thunderstorms is located across Central PA
and moving northeastward towards Northeast PA. These two batches
will likely converge, continuing the thunderstorm threat
through the evening. Instability will wane by the late evening,
therefore ending the severe weather threat by 11PM.

With this update, made minor adjustments to PoPs to reflect
latest radar trends. Also added in mention of damaging winds and
frequent lightning this evening for the areas located in the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track and the previous discussion remains valid.

Previous Discussion:

The environment still looks favorable for some scattered,
strong thunderstorms through this evening. In areas across the
southern Finger Lakes and Susquehanna Regions and southward
across NEPA, CAPE values exceed 1500 J/kg with 0-6km Bulk Shear
values of 25-30 kts. While there have been one or two isolated
storms to pop up, hi-res models suggest a later event, mainly
this evening through tonight. Later tonight, the environment
does begin to stabilize, which would limit the severe threat.
However, there does appear that there will be enough instability
to support some scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially
across CNY.

A trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to our region overnight.
This will advect tropical moisture from Elsa into the area
supporting another round of rain showers Thursday morning. Some
model guidance does suggest the potential for some thunderstorms as
well, but confidence is too low to include thunder during the
morning hours when the environment will be more stable.

Temperatures this afternoon are in the 80s and low 90s after clearer
skies and no thunderstorm activity allowed us get closer to our
forecasted highs today. Overnight lows will remain mild as temps
will only fall into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will move into western NY by midday Thursday,
leading to increasing shower coverage through the late morning
hours. Heavier precip will be focused east of I-81 in the
afternoon, especially as a low level jet noses into the Poconos
and Catskills. Models/Ensembles still have considerable
uncertainty over a possible "predecessor-event" band setting up
over NE PA and eastern NY. this would be associated with a
combination of strong low/mid level moisture advection from the
LLJ and enhanced upper level diffluence being in the right
entrance region of a jet streak over eastern ON/western QC and
the left exit region of more subtle 50-60 knot jet streak over
eastern PA into far SE NY. Some models focus the heavier precip
with this feature over the Adirondacks, while others stretch it
further back into NE PA.

Thu AM-Thu PM precip amounts of 1-2 inches (lower end) or 2-3
inches (higher end scenario) over the far eastern CWA by
themselves wouldn't be too troublesome. Flash flood risk will
mainly depend on cumulative antecedent conditions. Essentially,
those areas that are hard hit by locally heavy rainfall this
(Wed) evening, will be far more susceptible for flooding
Thursday afternoon/evening. For this reason, we decided to hold
off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch until the most susceptible
areas can be assessed later tonight.

There's still a small chance that Elsa could continue to trend
further to the west, bringing the western fringes of the deeper
tropical moisture (i.e., PWAT >2.2 inches) into the
Cats/Poconos Thursday Night or Friday morning, but at this point
it looks like it'll remain just to our east. Otherwise,
lingering rain showers will diminish west to east through
Friday, with a few additional pop-up showers or thunderstorms
out west later in the afternoon.

Saturday looks to be dry (at last!) with temperatures mainly in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Continued unsettled weather is expected during the long term
period with multiple chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A large upper level ridge will be building off the Mid-Atlantic
coast and a moist southerly flow will develop across Central NY
and Northeast PA. Multiple disturbances are expected to ride
along the top of the ridge, leading to daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Continued to go close to
NBM for PoPs, but just eliminated any mention of likely PoPs
being this far out in the forecast period.

A gradual warming trend is expected during the long term. Highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected Sunday and Monday.
Then highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While most terminals are VFR as of the 00Z TAF issuance, this
will be rather short lived. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move through the area and possibly impact all
terminals this evening, especially KELM, KBGM, and KAVP.
Included two hour TEMPO groups for the time period where
thunderstorms are most likely at these terminals. That being
said, amendments are possible to further fine-tune the threat
for thunderstorms.

Behind the main batch of showers and thunderstorms, patchy fog
and/or lower ceilings are expected. IFR conditions are expected
at most terminals late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
through the area on Thursday, especially during the afternoon.
Right now, confidence for thunder is only high enough to include
in the TAFs at KAVP and KBGM for the very end of the TAF period.
This will be fine-tuned in the upcoming TAF issuances.

Outlook...

Thursday evening through Friday...Additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible with associated intermittent
restrictions, especially Thursday evening.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; small chance of a
shower/brief restriction.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR; chance for
showers/thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-082045-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-
Southern Oneida-
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An eastward moving storm system will interact with moisture partly
from the remnants of Elsa. Rain showers and thunderstorms will
increase on Thursday and Thursday night, and a few heavier showers
could lead to localized flooding, though this risk will be higher
further to the east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ022>025-044-055-PAZ038-082045-
Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Cortland-Tioga-Bradford-
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An eastward moving storm system will interact with moisture partly
from the remnants of Elsa. Rain showers and thunderstorms will
increase on Thursday and Thursday night, and a few heavier showers
could lead to localized flooding, though this risk will be higher
over areas east of I-81.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-082045-
Chenango-Otsego-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An eastward moving storm system will interact with moisture from the
remnants of Elsa. Rain showers and thunderstorms could become heavy
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with localized flooding
possible, especially in areas which have received heavy rainfall in
recent days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S ADDISON             42.05N 77.23W
07/07/2021                   STEUBEN            NY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN COUNTY ROUTE 5.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
909 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOMPKINS CORNERS        42.20N 76.89W
07/07/2021                   CHEMUNG            NY   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN ON TREES.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
912 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROY                    41.79N 76.79W
07/07/2021                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
917 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CANTON                  41.66N 76.85W
07/07/2021                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ057-PAZ040-080230-
Delaware-Northern Wayne-
957 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 957 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Shehawken, or
17 miles south of Deposit, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hancock, Starrucca, Hiawatha, Shehawken, Starlight, Equinunk,
Peabrook, Fishs Eddy, Orson and Lake Como.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

LAT...LON 4186 7514 4185 7514 4184 7513 4174 7539
      4181 7547 4185 7548 4204 7522 4189 7507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 232DEG 24KT 4181 7539

MWG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1005 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OWEGO                   42.10N 76.26W
07/07/2021                   TIOGA              NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON VEHICLE. OTHER TREES AND WIRES
            DOWN.

&&