Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1192
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 8, 2021, 12:00 AM EDT for Berkshire County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts; 12 counties in New York. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 8, 2021, 12:00 AM EDT (04:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 8, 2021, 1:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Berkshire County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1805 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -82 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1235 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted.
483
ACUS11 KWNS 080401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080400
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-080500-
Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021
Areas affected...Southeast New York...Southern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080400Z - 080500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat currently located near the western
edge of WW 344 is expected to continue for another hour. However,
the threat should become more isolated as the line moves eastward
across southeast New York. It is unlikely that WW 344 will need to
be extended further in time beyond the 05Z expiration time.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Albany, New York shows a
well-developed line segment, located in the western part of the
Hudson River Valley. The line is near a quasi-stationary front with
surface dewpoints along the boundary around 70 F. The line is
located along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate instability.
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 2000 J/kg over eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The instability will help the
line to remain organized for another hour or so as the cold pool
moves eastward. However, cooling surface temperatures will likely
result in a gradual downtrend of the severe threat.
..Broyles.. 07/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 40617241 40967383 41277442 41507478 42337484 42697466
42677361 42567280 41407182 40617241SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 1:44 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr | |
| Jul 8, 2:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Capitol Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region and 1 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 8, 4:36 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 114 min | |
| Jul 8, 1:31 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.