Alert archive / New Jersey / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351

July 8, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 8, 2021, 2:09 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 8, 2021, 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC)
Expired
Jul 8, 2021, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 43 counties

Capitol Planning Region, CT, Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 2:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Passaic49 min
Jul 8, 2:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMonmouth, Ocean21 min
Jul 8, 2:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Warren46 min
Jul 8, 3:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset42 min
Jul 8, 3:15 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region3 hr
Jul 8, 3:53 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Hudson3 hr
Jul 8, 4:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMonmouth31 min
Jul 8, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Montgomery39 min
Jul 8, 4:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks50 min
Jul 8, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMiddlesex, Somerset16 min
Jul 8, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton45 min
Jul 8, 4:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks54 min
Jul 8, 5:06 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatOKXBergen3 hr
Jul 8, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXNassau, Suffolk44 min
Jul 8, 5:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia39 min
Jul 8, 5:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren41 min
Jul 8, 6:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon39 min
Jul 8, 6:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex51 min
Jul 8, 6:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-07-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 973 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-07-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
973 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
751 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

566 
WWUS20 KWNS 081806
SEL1  
SPC WW 081806
CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-090100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Connecticut
  Northern and central New Jersey
  Southeast New York
  Eastern Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms including a few supercells
should continue to develop and spread east-northeastward across the
region, particularly in vicinity of an effective boundary. Damaging
winds and severe hail are the primary concerns, although a tornado
cannot be ruled out.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Allentown PA to 15 miles north northeast of Groton CT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 12:00 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC60 min
Jul 8, 1:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Jul 8, 4:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC114 min
Jul 8, 1:31 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.