Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137

May 3, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 3, 2021, 9:10 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2021, 9:10 PM CDT (02:10 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2021, 4:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 84 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Taney County, MO, Wayne County, MO, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
60%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

60 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 9:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian57 min
May 3, 9:38 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian37 min
May 3, 9:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington39 min
May 3, 10:02 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACrawford, Franklin15 min
May 3, 10:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Newton40 min
May 3, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVMcCurtain36 min
May 3, 10:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian3 hr
May 3, 10:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAFranklin, Madison48 min
May 3, 10:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk46 min
May 3, 10:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone43 min
May 3, 10:19 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAWashington3 hr
May 3, 10:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMadison, Washington39 min
May 3, 10:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Scott47 min
May 3, 10:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Pope, Yell46 min
May 3, 10:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACarroll, Madison, Washington44 min
May 3, 10:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Newton, Pope, Searcy52 min
May 3, 10:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk, Scott51 min
May 3, 10:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCamp, Franklin, Red River, Smith, Titus, Upshur and 1 more65 min
May 3, 10:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Montgomery, Polk, Scott49 min
May 3, 10:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Marion23 min
May 3, 11:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKYell10 min
May 3, 11:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Marion, Newton, Searcy27 min
May 3, 11:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACarroll52 min
May 3, 11:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Pope, Van Buren47 min
May 3, 11:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Yell23 min
May 3, 11:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMadison13 min
May 3, 11:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Scott, Yell37 min
May 3, 11:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy and 2 more51 min
May 3, 11:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPope, Yell29 min
May 3, 11:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKYell29 min
May 3, 11:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Pope, Yell21 min
May 3, 11:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River61 min
May 3, 11:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Polk, Scott44 min
May 3, 11:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Perry, Pope, Yell27 min
May 3, 11:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Conway, Stone, Van Buren50 min
May 4, 12:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Scott, Yell19 min
May 4, 12:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Fulton, Izard, Marion, Searcy, Stone35 min
May 4, 12:14 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFOzark6 hr
May 4, 12:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk45 min
May 4, 12:25 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHoward, Little River, Sevier34 min
May 4, 12:34 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier41 min
May 4, 12:40 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Polk26 min
May 4, 12:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Pike45 min
May 4, 12:59 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLawrence, Randolph31 min
May 4, 1:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Independence, Jackson, Lawrence, Sharp39 min
May 4, 1:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike52 min
May 4, 1:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVGregg, Smith, Upshur, Wood50 min
May 4, 1:19 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Oregon, Shannon41 min
May 4, 1:23 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell52 min
May 4, 1:31 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery, Perry, Saline44 min
May 4, 1:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLawrence, Randolph, Sharp43 min
May 4, 1:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Hot Spring, Saline34 min
May 4, 1:43 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHButler, Carter, New Madrid, Ripley, Wayne62 min
May 4, 1:55 AM CDTTornado WarningPAHRipley21 min
May 4, 2:03 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Garland, Hot Spring, Perry, Pope and 2 more42 min
May 4, 2:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline, White42 min
May 4, 2:27 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHRipley3 hr
May 4, 2:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White38 min
May 4, 2:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff32 min
May 4, 3:07 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie14 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1558 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1558 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
972 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

373 
WWUS20 KWNS 040207
SEL7  
SPC WW 040207
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
910 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Most of western and central Arkansas
  Extreme northwestern Louisiana
  Extreme southern and southeastern Missouri
  Extreme southeastern Oklahoma
  Northeastern Texas

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 910 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms are expected to spread
east-northeastward toward Arkansas overnight from eastern Oklahoma
and northeastern Texas.  There will be a tendency for storms to grow
into larger clusters and line segments, with an increasing threat
for damaging winds, with isolated significant gusts possible. 
Otherwise, any lingering supercells will be capable of producing
isolated very large hail, and a tornado or two may occur with
embedded circulations.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Flippin AR to 5 miles southwest of Longview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 133...WW 134...WW
135...WW 136...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Baxter, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Clark and 60 more2 hr
May 3, 10:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson, Madison, Marion and 2 more83 min
May 3, 11:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne, Conway and 27 more86 min
May 4, 1:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Jackson and 5 more114 min
May 4, 1:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Mississippi and 2 more6 hr
May 4, 2:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Conway, Craighead, Cross, Faulkner, Garland and 16 more88 min
May 4, 4:17 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden88 min
May 4, 6:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 8 more2 hr
May 4, 10:52 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Columbia, Desha and 2 more7 hr
May 4, 11:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Lee, Phillips2 hr
May 4, 12:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCPhillips5 hr
May 4, 1:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleburne, Conway, Craighead, Cross, Faulkner, Greene and 17 more2 hr
May 4, 8:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvoyelles, Caldwell, Catahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, East Feliciana and 14 more117 min
May 4, 12:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Catahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Franklin, Grant and 9 more89 min
May 4, 3:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCEast Baton Rouge, Livingston, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington, West Baton Rouge6 hr
May 4, 4:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSaint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington89 min
May 3, 7:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes and 7 more97 min
May 4, 12:47 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Johnston, Love and 3 more2 hr
May 4, 1:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Garvin and 7 more83 min
May 3, 7:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Comal and 9 more4 hr
May 3, 8:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBexar, Blanco, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays, Kendall60 min
May 3, 9:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Nolan and 6 more95 min
May 3, 9:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Coryell, Ellis, Falls, Freestone and 12 more53 min
May 3, 10:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bell, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta and 28 more5 hr
May 4, 8:11 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAngelina, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado and 22 more8 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.