Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138

May 3, 202134 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 3, 2021, 10:22 PM CDT for 34 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2021, 10:22 PM CDT (03:22 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2021, 3:00 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 34 counties

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 10:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDVan Zandt42 min
May 3, 10:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDelta, Hopkins, Hunt, Lamar, Rains54 min
May 3, 10:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDBell, Falls, McLennan43 min
May 3, 10:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDHenderson, Kaufman, Van Zandt44 min
May 4, 12:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDHenderson, Kaufman, Navarro, Van Zandt57 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3299 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 150 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3299 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1213 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.6
Supercell composite
13.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

781 
WWUS20 KWNS 040315
SEL8  
SPC WW 040315
TXZ000-040800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Parts of central and north central Texas

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1015 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Earlier supercells near and east of I-35 have evolved more
into clusters with the potential for damaging winds/large hail to
persist for a few more hours overnight as the storms spread
east-northeastward.  In the short term, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out.  Farther west, there is some potential for the
elevated severe storms in northwest Texas (with a prior history of
large hail and damaging winds) to continue eastward into north Texas
before weakening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of
Dallas TX to 25 miles southeast of Temple TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 133...WW 134...WW
135...WW 136...WW 137...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 7:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Comal and 9 more4 hr
May 3, 7:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Fannin and 6 more97 min
May 3, 8:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBexar, Blanco, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays, Kendall60 min
May 3, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Gregg, Marion, Morris and 4 more2 hr
May 3, 9:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Nolan and 6 more95 min
May 3, 9:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more7 hr
May 3, 9:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Coryell, Ellis, Falls, Freestone and 12 more53 min
May 3, 11:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Falls, Franklin, Freestone and 12 more86 min
May 4, 6:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Camp, Cass and 23 more2 hr
May 4, 8:11 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAngelina, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado and 22 more8 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.