Mesoscale Discussion 515

Issued

May 3, 2021, 11:34 PM CDT (04:34 UTC)

Expired

May 4, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT

In force

86 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 137...138

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

380 
ACUS11 KWNS 040434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040434 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/northeast TX into
western/central AR and far southern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137...138...

Valid 040434Z - 040600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137, 138
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will
continue to be the main severe threats across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 137 and 138.

DISCUSSION...A small but fairly well organized bowing complex will
continue to move northeastward into north-central AR and perhaps far
southern MO over the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging wind
gusts will likely remain the primary severe threat with this
convection. Even though MLCIN is gradually increasing downstream of
this ongoing activity, a large reservoir of buoyancy remains
available, with MLCAPE still in the 2000-3000 J/kg range along and
south of a front. Occasional significant severe wind gusts of 75+
mph still appear possible given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
large DCAPE present. Farther south into central/northeast TX, a
broken line of storms should continue to pose an isolated large hail
and damaging wind threat in the short term given strong deep-layer
shear and moderate instability present. The greatest severe wind
threat across this region should focus across part of northeast TX
with a small cluster moving east-northeastward, where a measured
wind gust to 87 mph occurred at the Sulphur Springs TX AWOS around
04Z. Although there is some low-level veering/strengthening of the
wind profile that will conditionally support a tornado (mainly in
AR), the unfavorable storm mode should keep any tornado threat
rather isolated.

..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   31269711 32569629 33579548 34759429 35349397 36239403
            36699324 36809175 36209151 35579176 33269388 32819447
            31209675 31269711

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.