Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
134 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.AVIATION...04/06Z TAF CYCLE

Convection currently concentrated ovr much of north and western
AR, with mainly VFR/MVFR conds noted. Central and southeast
sections wl see this activity affect those locations thru the
early mrng hrs. Expect lingering rain chcs and lower clouds into
the aftn hrs as a CDFNT works thru the FA. Conds are expected to
improve later in the day and tngt as drier airmass works into
the region. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 304 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Recent MSAS data, sfc obs, and subjective analysis indicated a
region of cyclonic sfc flow over Nrn TX/Srn OK, w/ the the nose of
this lower pressure beginning to nose into N/Ern OK/Wrn AR. On a
larger scale, a broad trof of lower pressure extended from S/Wrn
TX towards the N/E over the Ozark Plateau and into the Upper
Midwest. Turbulent bndry layer conditions have given way to
substantial mixing and morning low stratus has since mixed out w/
an expansive diurnal Cu field beginning over Ern OK and more
recently portions of Srn AR. A strong pres grad was noted over the
state, and is continuing to drive strong Srly flow w/ temps in
the low to mid 80s currently over much of Srn AR, and upper 70s
along and north of the I-40 corridor. Td's in the lower 70s were
noted across Srn AR as well, w/ moisture transport expected to
remain rampant through the remainder of the afternoon as the
aforementioned sfc low approaches. The LZK 19Z sounding revealed a
rather unstable environment present over Cntrl AR w/ minimal CINH
in place and steep lapse rates contributing ML buoyancy in excess
of 2000 J/kg. To the N/W, a cold frnt was draped over KS and
N/Wrn OK extending into the Panhandle, and wl serve as the primary
forcing mechanism for CI later Mon night.

Over Mon night, several low amplitude perturbations wl traverse
through mean H500 S/Wrly flow on the downstream portion of a larger
impulse. This upper forcing wl overspread the region late in the
night and help aid in supplying some modest bulk shear, supportive
of sustaining organized convective activity. Latest thinking remains
consistent w/ this fcst update on the potential for a nocturnal
thunderstorm complex/MCS to develop over Ern OK and advance Ewrd
into portions of Nrn and Cntrl AR. Most recent suite of CAM and HREF
guidance is supportive of this fcst as well, w/ a NP bullseye for
strong winds over the Nrn portion of the state. Initially, a
multicell storm mode is anticipated following CI in Ern OK along the
advancing cold frnt, however weaker shear values and poor shear
vectors relative to the bndry wl contribute to interacting cold
pools and consolidation, leading to quick upscale growth into a
linear segment/MCS. Based on timing of probabilistic HREF guidance,
this segment should enter the Wrn portion of the state b/w the 02-
03Z timeframe. Due to the timing of the event, diurnal cooling may
begin to inhibit sfc based buoyancy playing a role in E/wrd
progression of the line, however pt fcst soundings are still
suggesting sufficient ML buoyancy around 2000-3000 J/kg w/ minimal
CINH. Thus initially, as the line enters the state, it wl encounter
a favorable environment to continue advancing E/wrd initially.
However as the night progresses, cooling wl lkly diminish remaining
buoyancy further E into the state and cause the line to weaken
eventually before 12Z.

Given the anticipated storm mode and HREF
progs, strong to damaging winds wl lkly be the primary hazards
associated w/ this system, however some large hail cannot be ruled
out in the early phases of storm development. Low-lvl shear progs
are not very supportive for QLCS tornadic activity, however it
remains non-zero at this time and cannot be ruled out either.

.TUES AND WED...

Tues, the aforementioned cold frnt wl sag S/Ewrd across the state w/
N/Wrly winds beginning to filter in drier air over the FA by the
later afternoon and evening. PoPs wl remain over much of the region
through the day w/ the FROPA and primary upper impulse lifting
N/Ewrd, however most can expect RH values and the general mugginess
begin to subside from N/W to S/E through the later evening, as Cntrl
Plains high pressure begins to sag S/wrd.

Wed, sfc high pressure wl begin to overtake the FA w/ Nrly winds
continuing to usher drier air in and promote a more settled wx
pattern with more seasonal temperatures resuming.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

A large area of high pressure will build over Arkansas from the
Plains, and that will bring a few days of dry conditions and below
average temperatures.

The high will depart by the weekend, and return flow will bring
temperatures back up to seasonal levels. At the same time, a new
storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward
Arkansas, and rain chances will increase.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast
Saturday through Monday. At this time, the dynamics aloft to
support severe weather do not look impressive, so severe weather
should be localized. However, the front will be nearly parallel a
southwest wind flow aloft, and will be slow to cross the state.
That could lead to areas of heavy rain.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1008 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1008 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe weather is expected over the region through the overnight
hours. The latest data indicates a complex of thunderstorms will
track across the state, posing a threat for damaging winds which
will last into early Tuesday morning.

In addition to damaging winds, large hail can not be ruled out.
The tornado threat, while low, can not be completed discounted.

Additionally, there could be some locally heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding and aggravate existing flooding
issues along some area rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Thunderstorms return to the forecast for the upcoming weekend.
Severe weather chances appear low at this time, but locally heavy
rainfall may develop.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
222 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE RAVENDEN          36.26N  91.19W
05/04/2021                   RANDOLPH           AR   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 63.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100597

GOUDSWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N  90.96W
05/04/2021                   LAWRENCE           AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF THE WALMART AND POWER POLES ARE
            DOWN IN THE PARKING LOT. REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND
            DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN THE CITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100598

GOUDSWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     HAIL             2 S ROLLING HILLS       35.09N  92.40W
05/04/2021  E1.00 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100599

GOUDSWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ROYAL               34.51N  93.26W
05/04/2021                   GARLAND            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 270.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100600

GOUDSWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN VIEW           35.87N  92.11W
05/04/2021  E0.88 INCH       STONE              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100601

GOUDSWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE RANGER            35.11N  93.34W
05/03/2021  E60 MPH          YELL               AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100602

GOUDSWARD