Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 911

June 10, 20218 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2021, 4:48 PM MDT for 8 counties in Montana. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2021, 4:48 PM MDT (22:48 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2021, 6:15 PM MDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 252

Counties Garfield County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Valley County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 929 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 651 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
929 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-480 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
651 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
663 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

482 
ACUS11 KWNS 102248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102248 
MTZ000-110015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Central into northeast MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

Valid 102248Z - 110015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe hail and wind continues in
the short term, with a more organized wind threat possibly evolving
this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2245Z, a cluster of strong to potentially severe
convection is ongoing across central MT, in advance of a strong
shortwave midlevel trough that is approaching the northern Rockies.
In the short term, strong multicell or occasional supercell
structures capable of isolated hail and strong wind gusts will be
the primary threat, supported by moderate MUCAPE and effective shear
of 35-45 kt. 

A little later this evening, a more organized severe wind threat may
develop, as outflows consolidate and an accelerating cold front
moves into the region. As this occurs, one or more organized
clusters could move from central into northeast MT, potentially
capable of producing swaths of severe wind gusts, in addition to a
continued threat of isolated hail.

..Dean.. 06/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46080950 47720889 48870790 48970718 48980622 47930594
            46990589 46510625 45880771 45850911 46080950

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 9, 6:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill, Judith Basin, Petroleum and 1 more5 hr
Jun 9, 8:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill, Judith Basin, Petroleum and 1 more86 min
Jun 9, 10:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Fergus, Petroleum, Phillips84 min
Jun 10, 1:47 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Fergus, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Petroleum, Phillips and 4 more88 min
Jun 10, 1:56 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDaniels, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Valley, Wibaux94 min
Jun 10, 2:30 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCDaniels, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Wibaux6 hr
Jun 10, 2:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter114 min
Jun 10, 2:52 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlaine, Custer, Dawson, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 7 more6 hr
Jun 10, 4:36 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFallon, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Wibaux114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.