Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252

June 10, 202113 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 10, 2021, 2:52 PM MDT for 13 counties in Montana. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2021, 2:52 PM MDT (20:52 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2021, 8:55 PM MDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Blaine County, MT, Custer County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, McCone County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Valley County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 10, 3:08 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXFergus52 min
Jun 10, 3:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan61 min
Jun 10, 3:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWGarfield, Petroleum63 min
Jun 10, 3:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZMusselshell, Yellowstone43 min
Jun 10, 3:53 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningBYZMusselshell3 hr
Jun 10, 4:05 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWGarfield, Petroleum55 min
Jun 10, 4:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZMusselshell61 min
Jun 10, 5:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZMusselshell, Rosebud47 min
Jun 10, 5:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Richland, Wibaux61 min
Jun 10, 5:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWGarfield66 min
Jun 10, 6:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Richland, Wibaux65 min
Jun 10, 7:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Rosebud42 min
Jun 10, 7:22 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDaniels, Roosevelt, Valley53 min
Jun 10, 7:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie60 min
Jun 10, 7:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Richland, Wibaux40 min
Jun 10, 7:52 PM MDTTornado WarningGGWDaniels, Roosevelt, Valley26 min
Jun 10, 8:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDaniels, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Valley32 min
Jun 10, 8:23 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, McCone, Richland67 min
Jun 10, 8:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDaniels, Roosevelt, Valley33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 929 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 651 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
929 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-480 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
651 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
663 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

179 
WWUS20 KWNS 102049
SEL2  
SPC WW 102049
MTZ000-110400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East-Central/Northeast Montana

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
  1000 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms including some supercells
are expected to develop initially across east-central Montana and
quickly move north-northeastward through evening. Large hail and
severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards, although a
tornado could also occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles east northeast
of Havre MT to 55 miles west southwest of Miles City MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22035.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 9, 6:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill, Judith Basin, Petroleum and 1 more5 hr
Jun 9, 8:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill, Judith Basin, Petroleum and 1 more86 min
Jun 9, 10:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Fergus, Petroleum, Phillips84 min
Jun 10, 1:47 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Fergus, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Petroleum, Phillips and 4 more88 min
Jun 10, 1:56 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDaniels, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Valley, Wibaux94 min
Jun 10, 2:30 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCDaniels, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Wibaux6 hr
Jun 10, 2:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter114 min
Jun 10, 4:36 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFallon, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Wibaux114 min
Jun 10, 4:48 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGarfield, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Petroleum, Phillips, Treasure and 2 more87 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.