Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 345

April 9, 20218 counties in Arkansas; 57 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 9, 2021, 3:14 PM CDT for 8 counties in Arkansas; 57 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 9, 2021, 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)
Expired
Apr 9, 2021, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 72 counties

Benton County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK, Cooke County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX, Red River County, TX

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2021-04-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1068 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2021-04-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1068 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-311 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1414 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

996 
ACUS11 KWNS 092015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092014 
ARZ000-TXZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas/North
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 092014Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Eventual storm development expected across this region
will likely require WW issuance late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Midday RAOB from KOKC revealed stout capping just above
850 mb, supporting persistent low cloud cover across central
Oklahoma.  While the low clouds persist, a slight change in
character toward more cumuliform elements is occurring --
particularly over portions of western/southwestern Oklahoma.

As a cold front continues to advance southeastward across this area,
ahead of a mid-level vort max shifting southeastward out of the High
Plains, ascent will continue to allow the cap to weaken -- resulting
in eventual storm development.  Intensity of the initial cells over
far western Oklahoma will likely remain limited, but with 2000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE now indicated within the very steep lapse rates
within the elevated mixed layer above the cap, robust storms will
likely evolve.

Storm intensity will be aided by a belt of stronger mid-level flow
expected to spread across the region south/southeast of the upper
system.  Along with potential for locally damaging wind gusts, very
large hail will also be possible with the strongest/rotating storms.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35389873 36389838 37019704 37019488 36089383 34429374
            33199511 33479796 34439850 35389873

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 9, 9:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Pike and 1 more116 min
Apr 9, 12:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 20 more6 hr
Apr 9, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 5 more95 min
Apr 9, 2:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 18 more85 min
Apr 9, 3:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Cleveland, Desha and 5 more95 min
Apr 9, 3:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Fulton, Izard, Lawrence, Marion, Randolph and 1 more7 hr
Apr 9, 3:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 6 more7 hr
Apr 9, 5:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley116 min
Apr 9, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColumbia, Union7 hr
Apr 9, 6:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Washington116 min
Apr 9, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 48 more7 hr
Apr 8, 9:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Brazos, Cherokee, Freestone, Grimes, Henderson and 7 more2 hr
Apr 9, 3:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Caldwell and 14 more2 hr
Apr 9, 4:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Coryell and 26 more9 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.