Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 287

March 27, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 27, 2021, 6:42 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 27, 2021, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
Expired
Mar 27, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 59...60
All 57 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Drew County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Union County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, DeSoto County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Crockett County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Upshur County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-03-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 951 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-03-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 192 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
951 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-50 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
670 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
5.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

964 
ACUS11 KWNS 272342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272342 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-280145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Areas affected...east Texas...Arkansas...northern Louisiana and
Mississippi...western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...60...

Valid 272342Z - 280145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59, 60 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat of a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
continues from east Texas into western Tennessee, and will likely
persist this evening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms currently extends from
northeast TX into south-central AR and western TN, well ahead of the
cold front which extends from western AR into north TX as of 01Z.
Several supercells were noted, with a tornado or two ongoing over
northeast TX and northeast AR. Intense hail cores were also observed
across AR.

Given long hodographs and a few hours before the cold front
interacts with these storms, supercell may remain the primary mode
for for a couple hours. Two areas of stronger effective SRH exist,
from northeast TX into northwest LA, and over TN, with values in
excess of 200 m2/s2. 

Later this evening, and as the cold front interacts with these
storms, a transition to linear mode is expected, with both damaging
winds and embedded circulations possible.

..Jewell.. 03/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31899407 31639495 31819519 32249516 33309482 34189391
            35689094 35968984 35878916 35758895 35388901 34778985
            33749147 31899407

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 11:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Poinsett, St. Francis3 hr
Mar 27, 1:51 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, Poinsett and 1 more7 hr
Mar 27, 2:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland and 26 more89 min
Mar 27, 3:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 31 more10 hr
Mar 27, 2:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Lafayette, Marshall and 8 more115 min
Mar 27, 3:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAttala, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Clay and 17 more94 min
Mar 27, 7:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bedford, Bledsoe, Campbell, Cannon, Claiborne and 28 more2 hr
Mar 27, 10:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger and 12 more90 min
Mar 27, 3:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChester, Crockett, Decatur, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin and 12 more93 min
Mar 27, 4:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Brazos, Freestone, Henderson, Hopkins, Houston and 9 more116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.