Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 282

March 27, 202118 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 27, 2021, 3:42 PM CDT for 18 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 27, 2021, 3:42 PM CDT (20:42 UTC)
Expired
Mar 27, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 59

Counties Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Perry County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Wayne County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-03-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 265 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-03-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 180 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
265 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-202 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
853 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
151 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

165 
ACUS11 KWNS 272042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272042 
TNZ000-ARZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Areas affected...Portions of extreme eastern AR into western/middle
TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

Valid 272042Z - 272215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and large hail should increase
across parts of western/middle TN through the remainder of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar and visible satellite imagery, it
appears that robust updraft development is imminent across parts of
southwestern TN. VWP from KNQA shows around 25-30 kt of 0-1 km
shear, and nearly 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. With 50-60+ kt of
effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present along and
south of a warm front, supercells still appear likely. The best
tornado threat across Tornado Watch 59 will probably focus across
southwestern TN and vicinity over the next couple of hours in the
vicinity of the warm front, as the greatest low-level shear is
present there. Large hail, potentially greater than 2 inches in
diameter, also remains a concern given the moderate to strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates.

..Gleason.. 03/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35028875 35029022 35469029 35788971 35918879 35928726
            35498707 35058739 35028875

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 2:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Cannon, Chester, Coffee, Decatur, Fayette and 18 more115 min
Mar 27, 7:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bedford, Bledsoe, Campbell, Cannon, Claiborne and 28 more2 hr
Mar 27, 10:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger and 12 more90 min
Mar 27, 11:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Bradley, Cannon, Carroll, Chester and 39 more3 hr
Mar 27, 1:51 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBedford, Benton, Carroll, Chester, Coffee, Crockett and 24 more7 hr
Mar 27, 6:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Fayette, Haywood, Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.