Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2087

December 30, 20219 counties in Alabama; 42 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 30, 2021, 2:54 PM CST for 9 counties in Alabama; 42 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 30, 2021, 2:54 PM CST (20:54 UTC)
Expired
Dec 30, 2021, 5:00 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 572
All 51 counties

Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Baldwin County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Harris County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lee County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Washington County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-12-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 408 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-12-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 342 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
408 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
451 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
342 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
348 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

088 
ACUS11 KWNS 302055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302054 
GAZ000-ALZ000-302300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

Areas affected...portions of south-central Alabama...and central
Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572...

Valid 302054Z - 302300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across WW 572
this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes are possible.

DISCUSSION...A band of semi-discrete supercell clusters will
continue spreading generally eastward across parts of east-central
AL and central GA over the next several hours. Within the
pre-convective environment, moist south-southwesterly trajectories
(upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) off the eastern Gulf of Mexico
combined with diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates are
resulting in favorable surface-based inflow. Generally weak forcing
for ascent across the area combined with deep-layer shear vectors
oriented obliquely to the low-level axis of forcing should support
the maintenance of separated updrafts. Ahead of the ongoing
convection, the latest RAP mesoanalysis and VWPs show effective SRH
values of 150-180 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 knots. These
factors will continue to support the risk of semi-discrete supercell
structures capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
a couple of tornadoes. The tornado risk may eventually become
maximized over portions of south-central GA, where surface winds
should remain slightly more backed beneath a strengthening 850-mb
low-level jet.

..Weinman.. 12/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31528622 31868678 32358662 32628594 33008461 33168335
            33208245 32868207 32348206 32008225 31818278 31528622

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 29, 7:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay and 15 more2 hr
Dec 29, 8:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Cherokee, Etowah2 hr
Dec 29, 9:16 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa and 4 more7 hr
Dec 29, 10:56 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Randolph2 hr
Dec 30, 1:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Randolph and 3 more90 min
Dec 30, 4:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Greene and 10 more2 hr
Dec 30, 10:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas and 9 more116 min
Dec 30, 1:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Clarke and 13 more7 hr
Dec 30, 1:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 29 more2 hr
Dec 30, 5:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brantley and 32 more115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.