Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2083

December 30, 20219 counties in Alabama; 21 counties in Georgia; McCormick County, Newberry County, Saluda County, South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 30, 2021, 1:15 AM CST for 9 counties in Alabama; 21 counties in Georgia; McCormick County, Newberry County, Saluda County, South Carolina. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 30, 2021, 1:15 AM CST (07:15 UTC)
Expired
Dec 30, 2021, 2:45 AM CST
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 571
All 33 counties

Bibb County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Butts County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Greene County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Newton County, GA, Pike County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Troup County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Saluda County, SC

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2021-12-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 251 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2021-12-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 228 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
251 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
790 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

283 
ACUS11 KWNS 300716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300715 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central AL into central/eastern GA and
far west-central SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 571...

Valid 300715Z - 300845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 571 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues in/near Tornado Watch
571. Downstream watch issuance into more of eastern Georgia and
central South Carolina appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection extends from parts of
central AL into GA and upstate SC early this morning. The leading
portion of the line now moving into central SC has shown a general
weakening trend over the past couple of hours. A less unstable
airmass with more convective inhibition noted in latest mesoanalysis
estimates may continue to limit the severe potential in the short
term across SC. Therefore, downstream watch issuance into more of
eastern GA and central SC appears unlikely at this time.

Farther west into central AL/GA, the ongoing broken line is oriented
largely parallel to the deep-layer shear vectors. The low-level flow
has also largely veered to a west-southwesterly component based on
recent VWPs for KBMX/KMXX/KFFC. This is limiting directional shear
and 0-1-km SRH, but effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt is still
present. This shear can still support supercells, although the
current storm mode appears rather messy at the moment. The moist
low-level airmass and related 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present should
also be sufficient to support surface-based storms along/south of
the ongoing activity. An isolated threat for damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado continues in/near Tornado Watch 571. But, it does
appear that the overall severe threat may be gradually diminishing.

..Gleason.. 12/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   33248695 33498608 33698387 34048207 34398148 34188124
            33058351 32698679 32728722 32948738 33118730 33248695

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 29, 7:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay and 15 more2 hr
Dec 29, 8:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Cherokee, Etowah2 hr
Dec 29, 9:16 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa and 4 more7 hr
Dec 29, 10:56 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Randolph2 hr
Dec 30, 4:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Greene and 10 more2 hr
Dec 30, 10:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas and 9 more116 min
Dec 30, 1:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Clarke and 13 more7 hr
Dec 30, 2:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Crenshaw, Lee, Lowndes, Macon and 3 more2 hr
Dec 30, 1:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 29 more2 hr
Dec 30, 5:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brantley and 32 more115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.