Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2081

December 29, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 29, 2021, 8:44 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 29, 2021, 8:44 PM CST (02:44 UTC)
Expired
Dec 29, 2021, 10:45 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 54 counties

Calhoun County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Dawson County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hall County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Hart County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Madison County, GA, Murray County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Polk County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Towns County, GA, Union County, GA, White County, GA, Whitfield County, GA, Buncombe County, NC, Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Graham County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Polk County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Polk County, TN

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2021-12-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 251 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2021-12-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 228 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
251 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
790 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

501 
ACUS11 KWNS 300245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300244 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...northern Georgia into the far western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 300244Z - 300445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving out of Tennessee and Alabama may continue to
pose a damaging wind and brief tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived line of storms currently extends from far
eastern TN into northeast AL, with QLCS structures observed on radar
with a brief tornado possibly occurring in DeKalb County AL.

Surface analysis shows mid 60s F dewpoints have spread into the
Atlanta area, with low 60s F approaching western NC. This is
resulting in sufficient SBCAPE to sustain a damaging wind and
tornado risk, as shear remains strong. 0-1 SRH of 250-300 m2/s2
currently resides ahead of the line of storms, and strongly favors
low-level rotation. As such, the QLCS tornado and wind risk is
expected to continue eastward, and a new watch may be necessary
soon.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 12/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33908633 34188610 34408582 34728506 35098466 35288429
            35638261 35528213 35308191 34898184 34448193 34058256
            33808390 33788451 33738547 33788614 33908633

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 29, 7:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay and 15 more2 hr
Dec 29, 9:16 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa and 4 more7 hr
Dec 29, 10:56 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Randolph2 hr
Dec 30, 1:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Randolph and 3 more90 min
Dec 30, 4:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Greene and 10 more2 hr
Dec 30, 10:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas and 9 more116 min
Dec 30, 1:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Clarke and 13 more7 hr
Dec 30, 2:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Crenshaw, Lee, Lowndes, Macon and 3 more2 hr
Dec 30, 1:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 29 more2 hr
Dec 30, 5:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brantley and 32 more115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.