Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1918

October 27, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 27, 2021, 5:13 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 27, 2021, 5:13 PM CDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired
Oct 27, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 542

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Forrest County, MS, George County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-10-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-10-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 186 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1792 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
186 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
274 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

803 
ACUS11 KWNS 272214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272213 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana...far southern Mississippi and
Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 542...

Valid 272213Z - 280015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 542 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging gusts
persist across the watch area, and may eventually spread east later
this evening.

DISCUSSION...A substantial line of storms continues to move east
across south-central MS and into southeast LA, with a warm front
draped from northwest to southeast across southern MS. South of this
boundary, boundary layer moisture is quite substantial with 75-77 F
dewpoints. Given this moist air mass, cells are easily forming in
the warm advection zone near and spreading north of the warm front.

At times, some of these cells have exhibited brief periods rotation.
While storm interference remains possible, effective SRH near 300
m2/s2 along the warm front conditionally favors a supercell capable
of brief tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging gusts and/or brief
circulations also remain possible within the main squall line as it
proceeds east.

Farther east toward Mobile and the western FL Panhandle, degree of
moisture return and destabilization is less certain, but will need
to be monitored through evening.

..Jewell/Grams.. 10/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31259023 31318978 31198906 30908799 30708749 30498714
            30298711 30188774 30188828 30158856 29918869 29758884
            29808932 29909019 30089065 30339067 30659052 31139037
            31259023

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 27, 7:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Jefferson Davis and 4 more84 min
Oct 27, 7:55 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 13 more9 hr
Oct 27, 9:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 7 more2 hr
Oct 27, 10:08 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 6 more5 hr
Oct 27, 10:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeauregard, Vernon91 min
Oct 27, 12:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Concordia, East Baton Rouge and 24 more85 min
Oct 27, 12:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 7 more83 min
Oct 27, 1:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 18 more8 hr
Oct 27, 3:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 13 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.