River Flood Advisory 18, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.AVIATION...
The slow moving cold front has entered northwest Arkansas and will
continue to move through the state today. Rain chances will be
highest in central and south sections. Heavy rain can be expected
at times. Low clouds and decreased visbuility will lead to MVFR
or IFR conditions at times. Rain will end in most locations this
evening but not til 06Z in the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
This upper ridge will be suppressed to the southeast by an
approaching upper moving through the Midwest. The southwest upper
low will become cutoff from the main flow and blocked by the upper
ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, keeping it over west Texas through
Friday.

A slow moving cold front will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms across the area today. The main threat now is heavy
rain. North, west and southwest sections will have the highest
threat of flash flooding. Another large area of rain will move
across central and south Arkansas during the day. A Flash Flood
Watch continues for parts of the area. Another inch of rain is
expected in the southwest. There is a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms across the southeast half of the area today along and
ahead of the front.

High pressure will build over the state tonight and Friday. Rain
chances will end in the south Friday morning. Surface high pressure
will be northeast of Arkansas by late Friday.

Highs today will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s and in the mid to
upper 70s Friday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s to lower
60s and then lower to mid 50s Friday night.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Rain chances will return to the forecast gradually from Saturday
into Sunday as an H500 closed low approaches the state from the
southwest. As it moves over the area it will transition into an open
wave.

There will be little reprieve in the form of dry weather as yet
another shortwave trough is expected to traverse the SW flow aloft
and move toward the state by early next week. Another period of rain
and thunderstorms is expected.

Temperatures through the period are largely expected to remain above
normal values with persistent srly flow. There may be some portions
of the state that see below average temps at times if widespread
precip occurs.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR Baxter-Boone-
Clark-Dallas-Fulton-Garland-Hot Spring-Izard-Johnson-Logan-
Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Pike-Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-
Stone-Yell.

&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
413 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
413 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across the area
today. An additional inch of rain is expected in central and
south sections. In areas that have had an abundance of rain
overnight, flash flooding will be possible. A few severe
thunderstorms will be possible in the southeast half of the area
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will be in the forecast this weekend through the
middle of next week. While severe weather chances don't appear very
high at this time, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding
concerns.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

51/67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
428 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

ARZ025-033-034-046-291000-
White AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-Jackson AR-
428 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOODRUFF...NORTHEASTERN
PRAIRIE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL
500 AM CDT...

At 428 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hickory Ridge to near Higginson. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Augusta...                        Patterson...
West Point...                     Tupelo...
McCrory...                        McFadden...
Hurricane Lake WMA...             Pryor...
Cotton Plant...                   Griffithville...
Beedeville...                     Becton...
Vinity Corner...                  Howell...
Penrose...                        McClelland...
Gregory...                        Grays...
Pumpkin Bend...                   Jasmine...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3498 9133 3508 9186 3549 9104 3510 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0928Z 278DEG 31KT 3539 9104 3511 9170

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
712 AM CDT THU APR 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLARKSVILLE             35.46N  93.47W
04/29/2021                   JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 64 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER OVER ROAD. TWO
            SWIFT WATER RESCUES OCCURRED, ONE ON HIGHWAY 359 NEAR
            PINEY CREEK, AND THE OTHER ON HIGHWAY 164 NEAR HORSEHEAD
            CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100584

232

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
823 AM CDT THU APR 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARDY                   36.32N  91.48W
04/29/2021                   SHARP              AR   PUBLIC

            CAMPGROUND MANAGER REPORTED SPRING RIVER OUT OF ITS
            BANKS THROUGH HARDY, HIGH WATER IN RIVER BEND PARK,
            LOBERG PARK, AND HARDY CITY RV PARK CAMPGROUND. ONE RV
            WAS WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. NO INJURIES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100585

232

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
931 AM CDT THU APR 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE HOT SPRINGS VILLA 34.70N  92.99W
04/29/2021                   GARLAND            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF HIGH WATER MOVING OVER TALLEY
            CEMETERY RD BRIDGE BETWEEN JESSIEVILLE AND HOT SPRINGS
            VILLAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100586

232